The Honor’s In The Dollar, Kid
An already convoluted outlook for markets was complicated further on Friday by a jobs report
Fed Pivot Math Seen Wildly Implausible
According to one popular sell-side strategist, a string of “very hot” US economic data could
US Recovers All Jobs Lost To Pandemic
Total nonfarm employment in the US returned to pre-pandemic levels in July, hotly-anticipated government data
Careful! It Could Be A Trap
Fade it at 4,200. That’s still the mantra for some strategists convinced the nascent rebound
Delaying The Inevitable (Enigmatic Dreams Of A Better Future)
Enigmatic. That’s the best way to describe second quarter earnings season in the US, where
Chasing Ghosts: The Rally That Wasn’t There
For weeks, 4,200 on the S&P was bandied about by some top-down strategists as a
2023 Rate Cut Standoff Puts Fed, Markets On Collision Course
If you ask Mary Daly, a slowdown in the US labor market is “completely worth
Nightmare: BoE Hikes Most In 27 Years, Predicts Recession, 13% Inflation
The Bank of England hiked rates for a sixth consecutive meeting Thursday. The 50bps move
300 Million Hamsters
Has the Fed regained its credibility as a check on inflation? That’s the question. Answers
Cognitive Dissonance: Services Sector Edition
Call off the recession. Maybe. A key gauge of US services sector activity defied a
Fed ‘Will Get It Right,’ Bullard Says
The US isn’t in a recession, Jim Bullard told CNBC Wednesday. The labor market, he
‘You Are Here’: ‘Unstable’ Rally Confronts Perilous Seasonal
Fed officials put market participants on notice this week: There was no “dovish pivot” from
Pozsar: Powell Would Risk US Depression To Slay Inflation
Zoltan Pozsar has a subtle suggestion for those attempting to forecast inflation: Consider the possibility
‘Incredibly Uncomfortable’ Fed Hawks Circle Summer Stock Rally
“The Fed is in an incredibly uncomfortable position,” Nomura’s Charlie McElligott said Tuesday, amid a
The Kolanovic Factor
Whenever consensus turns even a semblance of cautious on equities and risk assets more generally,
US Job Openings Just Plunged. But Nowhere Near Enough
US job openings fell more than expected in June, but hires were mostly unchanged and
Zoltan Pozsar: ‘Welcome To The War Economy’
“Welcome to the war economy, where heads of state matter more than heads of central
A Bear Revisits August Of 2008
I think we all get the joke. Or jokes, plural. Earnings are managed, management isn’t
US Tech Rally Won’t Last, One Bank Suggests
If you’re searching for double-digit monthly rallies on benchmark equity indexes, a good place to
‘Wrong’ Trades And Bad Bets
We’ve done it. We’ve jettisoned the two-quarter recession definition. And it didn’t take very long,
If Goldilocks Were A Recession
Manufacturing activity expanded at the slowest pace in two years, the first of this week’s
China Is Probably In A Recession Too
The world’s largest economy is in a recession. Or not. It depends on who you
‘It’s Very Concerning, You Know’
Neel Kashkari sees inflation. A lot of it. And he sees it everywhere. “It’s very
Help (Still) Wanted
“This is a very strong labor market,” Jerome Powell said last week, addressing reporters following
Nice Rally You Got There…
You could make a fairly long list of compelling reasons to distrust the rally in
I Was Told There’d Be Drama
A week ago, I (somewhat begrudgingly) expressed guarded optimism about earnings season in the US.
Squeezes And Pivots
The nascent recovery in beleaguered stocks is rational, but if you ask one popular sell-side
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