Hot Summers, Cold Winters
“Apocalyptic.” That’s how one popular strategist described the latest PPI print out of Germany, the
Patient Bears
“Everyone is bearish but no one has sold stocks,” BofA’s Michael Hartnett said, in the
Marko Kolanovic ‘Sets The Record Straight’
JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic wants to “set the record straight.” Over the course of 2022, the
US ‘Housing Recession’ Confirmed. Just Not By Prices
Existing home sales fell more than expected in the US last month, as affordability concerns
Not Screaming Recession
Cancel the blaring TV recession coverage for a day. In news that was only notable
Erdogan Rolls Dice. Cuts Rates With Turkish Inflation At 80%
Like most countries in 2022, Turkey has an inflation problem. I should note, for those
Albert Edwards: The Ice Age Is Finally Over
The US is likely headed into a proper recession, but according to one erstwhile deflationist,
One Does Not Simply Become Walmart
The US consumer is “very healthy.” That’s according to Target CEO Brian Cornell, who spent
Retail Sales Suggest US Consumers Spent Some Gas ‘Savings’
Retail sales were unchanged in the US last month, reflecting a weekslong drop in gas
The ‘Now’ Zeitgeist
A pair of macro notables served as a reminder that however close we may be
Mechanical Bull: What’s Really Behind The Summer Stock Rally
It’s certainly tempting to cite the “peak inflation” narrative and attendant expectations for an incrementally
Inflation Left-Tail Is Dying. But Hold The Champagne
The inflation left-tail risk may be “dying out.” That was one message from Nomura’s Charlie
Housing Sends Mixed Signals As Starts Fall, Home Depot Holds Up
In news that should surprise exactly no one, US housing starts fell sharply in July,
Everyday Low Bar: Walmart Steps Over Twice-Cut Forecast
Walmart is “seeing more middle- and high-income shoppers,” CEO Doug McMillon said Tuesday. It was
‘Tail Risks Are Diminishing,’ Kolanovic, JPMorgan Say
There are three possible scenarios for US growth, according to JPMorgan. One involves the risk
The Elephant In The Room
What about QT? Has everyone forgotten about QT? That’s one (among several) questions BofA’s Savita
This Bear Isn’t Buying It
Mike Wilson was “surprised” by the “magnitude” of a bear market rally that propelled US
US Enters ‘Housing Recession’ As Sentiment Dives
The US is in a “housing recession.” That’s according to NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz,
One Bear Has Some Distressing Math For Bulls
“Why is everyone so happy about 8.5% inflation?” BofA’s Savita Subramanian wondered, adopting an incredulous
Bottom Falls Out With Shocking Drop In Empire Survey
I suppose I’m supposed to call it a “shocker.” Because that’d generate the most reader
Days Of Our Lives
Global growth concerns cast a pall Monday following another disappointing read on the Chinese economy.
China Cuts Rates In Surprise Move As Data Disappoints
In what could plausibly be construed as a somewhat desperate move, China cut two key
Which Way Is Up?
Markets may feel lackadaisical in the new week. It’s the middle of August, after all.
Heat Check
Market participants — those not on vacation, anyway — have busied themselves recently obsessing over
2022: The Most Bearish, Illiquid Year Since Lehman?
Over the years, I’ve dedicated quite a bit of coverage to the feedback loop between
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