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Featured

The Tragic Irony Of The Israeli State

October 28, 2026October 28, 2026
  • F-ck You, Claude (Zen)

    October 27, 2026October 27, 2026
  • Frozen Bubble

    October 27, 2026October 27, 2026
  • Around, Around We Go

    October 27, 2026October 27, 2026

Markets

Anthropic: The Promise, The Numbers, The Risks

October 26, 2026October 27, 2026
  • Only You Can Prevent A Bear Market

    October 26, 2026October 27, 2026
  • Credit Canaries

    October 25, 2026October 26, 2026
  • Weekly: Something Wicked This Way Comes?

    October 23, 2026October 26, 2026
  • After The Rally: What’s Next For Treasurys?

    October 23, 2026October 25, 2026

economy

It’s All Relative

October 27, 2026October 28, 2026
  • It’s A Big Week

    October 25, 2026October 27, 2026
  • What To Expect From The October FOMC Meeting

    October 24, 2026October 26, 2026
  • Kevin Needs A Credit Event

    October 23, 2026October 25, 2026
  • Return Of The Left-Tail

    October 22, 2026October 23, 2026

Geopolitics

Lula!

October 26, 2026October 27, 2026

Not Done Just Yet?

October 22, 2026October 23, 2026

Questions, But No Answers

October 19, 2026October 20, 2026

Duly Noted

Not Since 1969…

October 22, 2026October 24, 2026

Mind The Control Group!

October 15, 2026October 16, 2026

‘Putin Always Chooses Escalation’

October 2, 2022October 9, 2022

Vladimir Putin is facing the very real prospect of defeat in Ukraine. Not just morally

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18 Comments on ‘Putin Always Chooses Escalation’

Cross-Asset Crisis ‘Completely Rational,’ Popular Strategist Says

October 2, 2022October 3, 2022

If it feels to you like the tension across markets admits of no readily discernible

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7 Comments on Cross-Asset Crisis ‘Completely Rational,’ Popular Strategist Says

Getting The Job(s) Done

October 2, 2022October 7, 2022

The Fed is newly single. Vis-à-vis their mandate. Ironically, the single-minded pursuit of price stability

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1 Comment on Getting The Job(s) Done

Yes, Credit Is Probably Cracking

October 1, 2022October 2, 2022

I keep hearing credit “hasn’t cracked yet” despite turmoil in rates, equities and FX. That’s

Read More

5 Comments on Yes, Credit Is Probably Cracking

Chaos Will Return To UK Assets

October 1, 2022October 7, 2022

Admittedly, it feels gratuitous to dwell on the most chaotic week for UK markets since

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6 Comments on Chaos Will Return To UK Assets

US Households To Sell $100 Billion In Stocks, Goldman Says

October 1, 2022October 2, 2022

Time and again over the course of what’s destined to be remembered as one of

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3 Comments on US Households To Sell $100 Billion In Stocks, Goldman Says

A Callous, Persistent Bear

October 1, 2022October 2, 2022

It really should’ve been worse. Or, if that’s too strong, we can say that it

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1 Comment on A Callous, Persistent Bear

Kolanovic Warns On War, Policy Risks

September 30, 2022October 1, 2022

“The most recent increase of geopolitical and monetary policy risks puts our 2022 price targets

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14 Comments on Kolanovic Warns On War, Policy Risks

Yellen Sanctions Nabiullina Amid Putin’s ‘Forever’ Annexations

September 30, 2022October 8, 2022

Tensions between the West and Vladimir Putin’s Russia ratcheted higher still on Friday, when Janet

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4 Comments on Yellen Sanctions Nabiullina Amid Putin’s ‘Forever’ Annexations

Neon Swans, Cash And A Dubious Anniversary

September 30, 2022October 1, 2022

The question is no longer “How long until something breaks?” Something broke this week. It

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8 Comments on Neon Swans, Cash And A Dubious Anniversary

Breaking News: More Terrible US Inflation Data

September 30, 2022October 2, 2022

The good news is that the bad news was already in the price. Hopefully. Key

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Leave a Comment on Breaking News: More Terrible US Inflation Data

(In)credible Cold Turkey Moments

September 30, 2022October 7, 2022

“Markets stop panicking when central banks start panicking.” That’s a familiar refrain. It’s another way

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5 Comments on (In)credible Cold Turkey Moments

Europe’s Inflation Crisis Spirals Into Double-Digits

September 30, 2022October 2, 2022

In news that’s every bit as disconcerting as it is unsurprising, inflation in the eurozone

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1 Comment on Europe’s Inflation Crisis Spirals Into Double-Digits

Albert Edwards Has A Different View Of UK’s Historic Week

September 29, 2022September 30, 2022

The ongoing crisis in the UK may not be all Liz Truss’s fault. I’m certainly

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5 Comments on Albert Edwards Has A Different View Of UK’s Historic Week

It Didn’t Last

September 29, 2022September 30, 2022

It didn’t last because it couldn’t. The bid for risk catalyzed by the Bank of

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3 Comments on It Didn’t Last

Germany To Borrow €200 Billion For Energy As Inflation Nears 11%

September 29, 2022September 30, 2022

Markets were handed another stunningly dire German inflation outcome on Thursday. The harmonized gauge showed

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1 Comment on Germany To Borrow €200 Billion For Energy As Inflation Nears 11%

It’ll All Be Fine. Truss Me.

September 29, 2022September 30, 2022

A renewed sense of angst was evident across markets Thursday, as the respite provided by

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5 Comments on It’ll All Be Fine. Truss Me.

Pension Panic Puts Central Banks Back In Intervention Mode

September 28, 2022October 5, 2022

September 28, 2022, was the day central banks were forced back into intervention mode. For

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26 Comments on Pension Panic Puts Central Banks Back In Intervention Mode

BoE’s Rescue Mission At Odds With Fed’s Inflation Fight

September 28, 2022September 29, 2022

Part of me doubts this needs restating, but given the historic nature of the circumstances,

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3 Comments on BoE’s Rescue Mission At Odds With Fed’s Inflation Fight

Druckenmiller’s Bold Call: ‘Something Really Bad’ Could Happen

September 28, 2022September 28, 2022

Stop whatever you’re doing! Stan Druckenmiller wants to say a couple of things. My overriding

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5 Comments on Druckenmiller’s Bold Call: ‘Something Really Bad’ Could Happen

The Most Important Takeaways From A Bad News Week

September 28, 2022October 7, 2022

The bad news is… everything, really. It’s not so much that there’s a “bull market”

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5 Comments on The Most Important Takeaways From A Bad News Week

‘A Forced Pension Fund Bailout. Full Stop’: McElligott On BoE

September 28, 2022September 29, 2022

“Why were they forced into this at a time where they’re seemingly so keen on

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5 Comments on ‘A Forced Pension Fund Bailout. Full Stop’: McElligott On BoE

BoE Will Buy Unlimited Bonds To Stem Crisis. QT Target ‘Unaffected’

September 28, 2022October 2, 2022

Just yesterday, Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill said plans to proceed with quantitative

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6 Comments on BoE Will Buy Unlimited Bonds To Stem Crisis. QT Target ‘Unaffected’

Sabotage

September 27, 2022October 3, 2022

If there were any lingering doubts as to whether something akin to a worst-case scenario

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15 Comments on Sabotage

US New Home Sales Stage Black Swan-Style Surge

September 27, 2022September 30, 2022

Markets were treated to another black swan-type event Tuesday, courtesy of a wholly anomalous beat

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11 Comments on US New Home Sales Stage Black Swan-Style Surge

Pace Of US Home Price Gains Downshifts Most Ever

September 27, 2022September 28, 2022

Home prices posted a smaller-than-expected annual gain in July, according to one closely watched gauge,

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1 Comment on Pace Of US Home Price Gains Downshifts Most Ever

Summers On UK: ‘I’m Surprised We Haven’t Heard From The IMF’

September 27, 2022September 30, 2022

Don’t give Larry Summers an easy target. In the immediate (and extremely chaotic) aftermath of

Read More

2 Comments on Summers On UK: ‘I’m Surprised We Haven’t Heard From The IMF’

Posts pagination

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • Steven Girard on F-ck You, Claude (Zen)
  • SeaTurtle on F-ck You, Claude (Zen)
  • Pyrognosis on F-ck You, Claude (Zen)
  • Caribbean Breeze on It’s All Relative

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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