Double-Dip Recession Risks Becoming Base Case For Europe As Virus Spreads Anew
About that European recovery. It’s in serious doubt. And there’s no mystery around why. As
About that European recovery. It’s in serious doubt. And there’s no mystery around why. As
Curb your enthusiasm. And buckle up.
Historical precedent is no longer useful.
The assumption of immunity may be misplaced.
It doesn’t do anybody any good to wax hyperbolic/hysteric, but…
So, fear the “rogue” inflation upside surprise, one supposes.
“…with a Fed which has completely gone limp.”
“… it sets up a dangerous dynamic where ‘late-comers’ are forced-in.””
Fallen angel risk, European style.
Putting some nuance on Jim’s “fragility” warning and “chasing tail” with Goldman.
The straw that breaks the camel’s back…
“The main risk to our pro-cyclical and non-US tilt is a spiraling escalation of the trade war, political tail risks in Washington, and failure of the Fed to recognize those potential developments.”
The tide is going out.
“Buy the dip” is now “sell the rip”, don’t ya know?
Are the regulatory demons real?
And there you go. Another way for cryptocurrencies to morph into a systemic risk…
“Come and play with us, Danny”…
Those are the dominoes. Don’t tip one.
It’s all about “loops” and “spirals” these days.
When the proverbial shit hits the fan, don’t blame risk parity and the trend followers. Rather, point the finger at the Target manager next door.
“We seem to be living in the riskiest moment of our lives, and yet the stock market seems to be napping.”
“However, the reality of the past thirty years has been a succession of bursting financial bubbles (1987, 1997, 2008), rather than inflationary spikes.”
“Volatility near or at record lows by a handful of measures should give pause to equity managers.”
Call that “the case of the disappearing diversification.”
Or just call it “rising tantrum risk.”
“Risky assets digested the increase in bond yields only reasonably well – 3-month equity/bond yield correlations stayed positive (Exhibit 3) and credit spreads buffered part of the increases (Exhibit 4). But correlations are starting to reverse.”
“Many risk assets are ripe for a correction from elevated levels and North Korea’s latest provocation provides sufficient excuse for traders to act.”
“Which of these divergences will hold going forward?”
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