‘The Truth Is, We Don’t Know’: What Is The Line In The Sand For Bond Yields?
Well, the debate around what the number is for 10Y yields has devolved into a veritable obsession for markets at this point.Â
Well, the debate around what the number is for 10Y yields has devolved into a veritable obsession for markets at this point.Â
Whatever the case, it looks like Goldman’s buyback desk isn’t enough to stop the bleeding in an acute situation…
It was just a matter of time before everyone got back to focusing on what the issue was in the first place.
“…never in modern financial history has a Central Bank expanded its balance sheet through quantitative easing and then successfully shrunk it back down.”
This is “beyond abnormal, it’s unprecedented.”
“…it’s about to accelerate. Not only that, the tank is full of gasoline, and the car has been stripped of all the extra weight.”
“Clarity around the next Fed chair, and hence the rate path, should provide a boost to global assets, particularly emerging markets.”
“…a market sell-off could trigger a large volatility spike, the magnitude of which is multi-fold higher than the pre-crisis level.”
“Throughout the crack cocaine epidemic, there was little or no discussion of the crisis being brought on by economic despair, or that it was a public health issue, or that the users needed rehabilitation.”
When jawboning just ain’t gonna cut it.
“That which does not kill us, makes us stronger. A much debated concept, but in terms of navigating markets, there’s a lot of truth in it.”
There’s been no shortage of digital ink spilled over the past couple of weeks about the euro’s inexorable rise both against the dollar and, more recently, agains the Swiss franc which at this point is more “beleaguered” than Jeff Sessions after a Trump Twitter tantrum.Â
“We’ve said this before and to be sure, it’s not a popular thing to say if you’re hanging out with retail investors or anyone who isn’t an active manager, but fuck it”…
“Our fair value model indicates these pressures will push the US10yr up to 3.00%. The latter level is also the major support line coming all the way from the late 1980s.”
“The reality is that there are many risks on the horizon as we write”…
“We believe that this risk-on phase (that started in January 2016) is coming to an end.”
“If there was sufficient loss of political support in the US for many of Trump’s policies such that the chance of successful execution falls towards zero, then central banks may need to return to the forefront of the deflation battle. Central Bank support for the economy was starting to lose credibility amongst some investors last year.”
“We now see this latest dollar bull run as moving into its latter stages and are downgrading our forecasts for the greenback against G10 crosses. Investors with significant dollar length should consider a more neutral stance.”
“Those who trade on systemic market risks need to know when their expiry date has passed. It’s time for the euro to enjoy its life out of the limelight and let some other asset be the focus of market worry.”
Yeah, so it turns out that exiting the European Union is probably going to be
“That’s because it’s the first time I’ve seen it, sir.”
It’s probably safe to say we’ve reached something that approximates “peak” French election analysis on Wall
“If markets turn more negative on the possibility of deposit flights out of the French banking system or on Italian BTPs and banks, the currency can fall more in the absence of a decisive response from the ECB. But, if the ECB were to show a strong hand in the market, buying sovereign debt, this perception could change.”
“One question we’ve pondered is whether the best post-election trade is in bond-land or FX”…
So earlier today in “To ‘Tantrum’ Or Not To ‘Tantrum’, That Is The Question,” I
For the hundredth time: “What do rates know that credit doesn’t?”
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