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Anthropic: The Promise, The Numbers, The Risks

October 26, 2026October 26, 2026
  • Only You Can Prevent A Bear Market

    October 26, 2026October 26, 2026
  • Lula!

    October 26, 2026October 26, 2026
  • It’s A Big Week

    October 25, 2026October 25, 2026

Markets

Credit Canaries

October 25, 2026October 26, 2026
  • Weekly: Something Wicked This Way Comes?

    October 23, 2026October 26, 2026
  • After The Rally: What’s Next For Treasurys?

    October 23, 2026October 25, 2026
  • BONDS!!!

    October 22, 2026October 24, 2026
  • Flying Cars, New Share Class Highlight Tesla, Meta Results

    October 21, 2026October 22, 2026

economy

What To Expect From The October FOMC Meeting

October 24, 2026October 26, 2026
  • Kevin Needs A Credit Event

    October 23, 2026October 25, 2026
  • Return Of The Left-Tail

    October 22, 2026October 23, 2026
  • Dear Lord…

    October 20, 2026October 21, 2026
  • Euphoric Depression

    October 19, 2026October 20, 2026

Geopolitics

Not Done Just Yet?

October 22, 2026October 23, 2026

Questions, But No Answers

October 19, 2026October 20, 2026

France Can’t Even Save Itself, Let Alone NATO

October 18, 2026October 19, 2026

Duly Noted

Not Since 1969…

October 22, 2026October 24, 2026

Mind The Control Group!

October 15, 2026October 16, 2026

Fed Backstop Borrowing Falls Again

April 13, 2023April 13, 2023

Banks continued to avail themselves of Fed liquidity backstops over the last week, but the

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Money Market Fund Assets Swell, Approach $5.3 Trillion

April 13, 2023April 14, 2023

Surprise! Money market funds attracted another $30 billion over the latest weekly reporting period, data

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4 Comments on Money Market Fund Assets Swell, Approach $5.3 Trillion

Local Oil Man Gets 50% Raise. Makes $36 Million

April 13, 2023April 13, 2023

Typically, I wouldn’t go out of my way to call out CEO compensation, where “out

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1 Comment on Local Oil Man Gets 50% Raise. Makes $36 Million

Was The Plunge In US Banking Lending An Optical Illusion?

April 13, 2023April 13, 2023

Was America’s much-hyped “credit crunch” a mirage? As most regular readers will recall, Fed data

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Fed Gets More Disinflation Evidence With Cool PPI, Rising Jobless Claims

April 13, 2023April 14, 2023

In another constructive development for the disinflation narrative in the US, producer prices across the

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5 Comments on Fed Gets More Disinflation Evidence With Cool PPI, Rising Jobless Claims

ECB Notices Greedflation. Albert Edwards Offers Another Warning

April 13, 2023April 14, 2023

Earlier this week, I suggested the purported wage-price spiral which many argue is driving inflation

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7 Comments on ECB Notices Greedflation. Albert Edwards Offers Another Warning

From SoftBank To Apple, Capital Cringes At Xi

April 13, 2023April 14, 2023

SoftBank and Prosus are selling more Alibaba and Tencent. That’s not the best news if

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2 Comments on From SoftBank To Apple, Capital Cringes At Xi

Americans Harbor Very Negative View Of Xi Jinping In New Poll

April 12, 2023

“Few Americans have confidence in Xi to do the right thing in world affairs, including nearly

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1 Comment on Americans Harbor Very Negative View Of Xi Jinping In New Poll

Fed Staff Saw Recession From Bank Stress, Minutes Reveal

April 12, 2023April 14, 2023

The word “recession” came up three times in the March FOMC minutes, all in the

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4 Comments on Fed Staff Saw Recession From Bank Stress, Minutes Reveal

Goldman Changes Fed Call Amid Tight Credit, Mixed Official Messaging

April 12, 2023April 13, 2023

The US is “certainly” past peak inflation, Tom Barkin told CNBC on Wednesday, following a

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Soft Landing Up North? BoC Seems To Think So

April 12, 2023

A month after becoming the first developed market central bank to pause a tightening campaign

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Fed, Markets Get Good News In Relatively Benign CPI Release

April 12, 2023July 24, 2023

Headline inflation in the US rose less than expected in March, while core price growth

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1 Comment on Fed, Markets Get Good News In Relatively Benign CPI Release

Buffett: ‘No Reason To Worry’ About Bank Deposits

April 12, 2023April 12, 2023

Warren Buffett wouldn’t confirm reports he discussed adverse developments in the US banking sector with

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2 Comments on Buffett: ‘No Reason To Worry’ About Bank Deposits

Latent Recession Risk At 50% Underlines ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Worries

April 12, 2023July 24, 2023

Recession risks are elevated. I suppose that goes without saying. If it does go without

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28 Comments on Latent Recession Risk At 5028 Underlines ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Worries

Fed Has $1 Trillion In Paper Losses. Projects $90 Billion In 2023 Red Ink

April 11, 2023April 12, 2023

You’ve surely seen the figure by now: US banks were sitting on $620.4 billion in

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2 Comments on Fed Has $1 Trillion In Paper Losses. Projects $90 Billion In 2023 Red Ink

No ‘Light At Tunnel’s End’ For Taiwan Export Slump

April 11, 2023April 11, 2023

Taiwan has a lot of problems currently, not least of which is that the autocrat

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4 Comments on No ‘Light At Tunnel’s End’ For Taiwan Export Slump

IMF Warns On ‘Tricky,’ ‘Uncertain’ World As Risks Proliferate

April 11, 2023April 12, 2023

The IMF’s new World Economic Outlook (that’s a proper noun) is here. Who’s excited? These

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3 Comments on IMF Warns On ‘Tricky,’ ‘Uncertain’ World As Risks Proliferate

Monetarists Hope For Renaissance After ‘Correct’ Inflation Call

April 11, 2023

We should’ve given the monetarists more credit. That was one ostensible lesson from the pandemic

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2 Comments on Monetarists Hope For Renaissance After ‘Correct’ Inflation Call

US Small Businesses Stare Down Worst Credit Crunch In Decades

April 11, 2023April 12, 2023

America’s small business owners are still “cynical.” That’s according to the latest vintage of the

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1 Comment on US Small Businesses Stare Down Worst Credit Crunch In Decades

Hikes, Specs And Techs

April 11, 2023April 12, 2023

Tech shares may be “over-discounting” prospective additional relief from bond yields, traders are increasingly convinced

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3 Comments on Hikes, Specs And Techs

Are 2023 Fed Cuts ‘Inevitable’?

April 10, 2023

I suppose this goes without saying, but US rates are more pessimistic about the macro

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Americans Most Pessimistic On Credit Access In A Decade

April 10, 2023April 10, 2023

Americans harbored the most grim perceptions of credit availability in at least a decade during

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1 Comment on Americans Most Pessimistic On Credit Access In A Decade

Is The Banking Crisis Over? Ask Google

April 10, 2023April 11, 2023

I’ve spent a lot of time over the last four weeks discussing the psychological side

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7 Comments on Is The Banking Crisis Over? Ask Google

SVB And The Anarchists’ Dream

April 10, 2023July 24, 2023

Seemingly every day, somebody, somewhere, publishes a new postmortem on last month’s turmoil in the

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6 Comments on SVB And The Anarchists’ Dream

Macron Hints At De-Dollarization, ‘Autonomy’ From US After Xi Meet

April 9, 2023April 9, 2023

Emmanuel Macron doesn’t want to pick sides. During interviews published Sunday, but conducted while he

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2 Comments on Macron Hints At De-Dollarization, ‘Autonomy’ From US After Xi Meet

Forget Bretton Woods 2 And 3. Try ‘Deep Dark Woods’ Instead

April 9, 2023July 24, 2023

If you’ve never been to Asheville, North Carolina, but you’ve heard of it, I’m not

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7 Comments on Forget Bretton Woods 2 And 3. Try ‘Deep Dark Woods’ Instead

Backup Plans And Alternate Realities

April 9, 2023April 14, 2023

The outcome of the Fed’s next meeting will, for all intents and purposes and assuming

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14 Comments on Backup Plans And Alternate Realities

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • Frank Talk on Lula!
  • Gimpy on Anthropic: The Promise, The Numbers, The Risks
  • T-Dog on Anthropic: The Promise, The Numbers, The Risks
  • Jerry Brown on Anthropic: The Promise, The Numbers, The Risks

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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