As ChatGPT Traffic Falls, A.I. ‘Baby Bubble’ Gets First Test
The “novelty wore off.” That’s how Similarweb described the first drop in global traffic to
Albert Edwards ‘Not Wavering Now’ On Recession Call
The problem with being “early” on recession calls (the same goes for forecasting equity selloffs)
US Equity Funds Get Second-Biggest Inflow Of 2023 As H2 Dawns
After two weeks of withdrawals, money flowed back into US stock-focused ETFs and mutual funds,
Job Gains Cool, Wage Growth Sticky In Mixed Read On Labor Market
The US economy added 209,000 jobs in June, according to the government’s tally released on
Markets May Face Tougher Inflation Fight, New Rate Shock In Q3
One impetus for this year’s equity gains is obviously falling headline inflation, and not just
Money Fund Assets Surge To New Record
Money market funds snapped a three-week streak of outflows with an emphatic, $43.7 billion haul
The ‘Perils Of Euphoric Expectations’
The biggest complaint I have with the A.I. “bubble” narrative is also the simplest: The
Blistering ADP Report Prints Half A Million
Private sector US employers added nearly half a million new jobs last month, data released
Quits Jump Back Above 4 Million, Underscoring Distorted US Labor Market
There were 9.82 million open jobs across the world’s largest economy on the last business
Mighty US Services Sector Steams Along
American manufacturing may be mired in a downturn, but the mighty US services sector most
Yellen In Beijing
The financial media was awash on Thursday with coverage of Instagram’s Twitter competitor “Threads,” but
US Job Cuts Slow Sharply
The pace of US job cuts moderated in June, even as the running total for
Irrational Rationality
It’s tempting to go ahead and call it: The second half of 2023 surely won’t
A Resolute Fed Looks To Labor Market For Inflation Relief
The June FOMC minutes suggested Fed officials aren’t satisfied that US inflation is on a
How Expensive Are US Stocks?
How expensive are US equities? That’s a bit of a clichéd question, admittedly. It’s made
Bears Bearing Bear Cases
Playing catch-up to an equity market that’s running away from you can end poorly. With
As Chinese Economy Falters, Xi Pitches ‘Pie Of Win-Win Cooperation’
The Chinese recovery narrative, easily among the worst macro calls of 2023 so far, was
Cold War Temperature Dialed Up Ahead Of Yellen’s Beijing Visit
Stay out of our clouds. (There’s a balloon joke there.) The Biden administration is poised
The Flows Backdrop For The Great Bond Debate
On Tuesday morning, I walked through the “debate” between Bill Dudley and Morgan Stanley’s US
The Bill Dudley, Morgan Stanley Treasury Row
Last year was bad for bonds. In fact, we can call 2022 anomalously poor. If
Cognac And Shelter Inflation
The Fed is counting on a decline in US shelter inflation. If that doesn’t pan
‘Investors’
“Investors,” we were told Monday, are curbing their outlook for equities following an “unexpectedly” buoyant
All Tech? Sure. All A.I.? Perhaps Not.
The concentrated market narrative continues to resonate. Although I’ve endeavored to emphasize that a narrow
Doing All Right. Maybe.
The marquee gauge of US factory activity missed estimates in data released Monday, but underlying
How Much Did The Machines Buy?
How important were systematics in perpetuating and sustaining the equity rally during the second quarter?
2023 In 500 Words
Many investors (I dare say a preponderance or at least a plurality assuming the existence
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