German Economy In ‘Twilight Zone’ Overshadows Better News In France

The world’s fourth-largest economy was stuck in limbo during Q2, data released on Friday suggested.

Officially, Germany “exited” a winter slowdown in the three-month period to June, but it’s probably more accurate to say the country’s “slowcession” persisted.

Growth stagnated, according to the Federal Statistical Office, which is to say there was no growth. As ING’s Carsten Brzeski put it Friday, reiterating remarks from earlier this week, the country “seems to be stuck in the twilight zone between stagnation and recession.”

The English version of the release came complete with a dash of accidental dry humor. “GDP did not continue to fall,” Destatis said. That surely wasn’t supposed to be funny, but… well, if anyone ever asks you for a glass half-full assessment of economic stagnation, now you know what to say.

Household consumption apparently put a floor under the economy, which is struggling through a manufacturing malaise that manifested earlier this week in “jaw dropping” declines for new orders and work backlogs in S&P Global’s flash PMIs for the country. The latest Ifo readings were poor, and the IMF said Germany is likely to be the only advanced economy to register a contraction in 2023.

Friday’s figures could be revised, but the overall picture wouldn’t change. “Weak purchasing power, thinned-out industrial order books, as well as the impact of the most aggressive monetary policy tightening in decades, and the expected slowdown of the US economy, all argue [for] weak economic activity,” ING’s Brzeski went on. “On top of these cyclical factors, the ongoing war in Ukraine, demographic changes and the current energy transition will structurally weigh on the German economy in the coming years,” he added.

It wasn’t all bad news out of Europe, though. The French economy put up a surprisingly strong showing. Q2’s 0.5% expansion blew away estimates and represented the briskest pace of growth in a year, a result Bruno Le Maire described as “remarkable. “Exports and business investment are driving growth more than consumer spending,” he said, in remarks to French media.

Inflation receded to 5%, a war-era low, although price growth in the services sector firmed.

At the same time, the Spanish economy held up ok, notching a 0.4% expansion, consistent with forecasts. Headline inflation in Spain has a two-handle now, but core is an entirely different story. Underlying price growth was 6.2% in July, Friday’s figures showed. Political uncertainty is a risk for Spain following elections last week.

Ultimately, Germany’s troubles will continue to weigh on the outlook for the European economy regardless of what happens in other locales. And it’s hard to see a light at the end of that particular tunnel. Separately (or not), a gauge of economic confidence in the euro-area slipped, even as the mood among consumers improved for a fourth month.


 

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