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Category: Markets

The Bill Dudley, Morgan Stanley Treasury Row

July 4, 2023July 5, 2023

Last year was bad for bonds. In fact, we can call 2022 anomalously poor. If

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‘Investors’

July 3, 2023July 24, 2023

“Investors,” we were told Monday, are curbing their outlook for equities following an “unexpectedly” buoyant

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8 Comments on ‘Investors’

All Tech? Sure. All A.I.? Perhaps Not.

July 3, 2023July 5, 2023

The concentrated market narrative continues to resonate. Although I’ve endeavored to emphasize that a narrow

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2023 In 500 Words

July 2, 2023July 24, 2023

Many investors (I dare say a preponderance or at least a plurality assuming the existence

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Xi Shuffles PBoC Functionaries As Yuan Slides, Stocks Struggle

July 2, 2023July 3, 2023

Yi Gang is a lame duck. China this weekend named SAFE frontman and “three red

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3 Comments on Xi Shuffles PBoC Functionaries As Yuan Slides, Stocks Struggle

Fear The Narrow Tech Bull?

July 1, 2023July 3, 2023

We tend to get bent out of shape and otherwise pretend it’s an affront to

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1 Comment on Fear The Narrow Tech Bull?

James Bond Geopolitics Fail To Stir Somnolent Summer Market

June 29, 2023June 30, 2023

It feels like there’s a lot going on these days. In part, that’s because there

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3 Comments on James Bond Geopolitics Fail To Stir Somnolent Summer Market

Retail Investor Euphoria May Be Fading

June 29, 2023June 30, 2023

Some of the retail euphoria which helped push US equities into bull market territory may

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The Paradoxical Legacy Of 2023’s US Banking Crisis

June 28, 2023July 24, 2023

Was America’s regional banking crisis a tempest in a teapot? (And yes, the Jamie Dimon

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1 Comment on The Paradoxical Legacy Of 2023’s US Banking Crisis

Markets Increasingly Disconnected From Macro On Soft Landing Odds

June 27, 2023June 28, 2023

Equities are increasingly priced for a soft landing. You can look at that one of

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5 Comments on Markets Increasingly Disconnected From Macro On Soft Landing Odds

Mike Wilson Will Make Bears Of You Yet

June 26, 2023July 24, 2023

There’s a “vigorous debate” going on right now around the outlook for equities, and particularly

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5 Comments on Mike Wilson Will Make Bears Of You Yet

Kolanovic, JPMorgan See Stormy Seas For Frothy Equity Market

June 25, 2023June 27, 2023

Rally skeptics abound as the second half of what already counts as another extraordinary year

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9 Comments on Kolanovic, JPMorgan See Stormy Seas For Frothy Equity Market

Fortune And Glory

June 24, 2023June 26, 2023

US equities are expensive, and the “Magnificent 7” even more so. Those observations are hopelessly

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6 Comments on Fortune And Glory

Did Bulls Just Lose Their Best Friend?

June 23, 2023June 25, 2023

Positioning isn’t necessarily your friend anymore if you’re a bull. Equities benefited immensely in May

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7 Comments on Did Bulls Just Lose Their Best Friend?

‘PMs Should Consider Hedging,’ Goldman Says, Amid Signs Of Exuberance

June 22, 2023July 2, 2023

Two weeks ago, Goldman’s David Kostin raised his price target for the S&P to 4,500

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Menaced By Intractable Inflation, Bank Of England Escalates

June 22, 2023June 23, 2023

On the heels of another disastrous inflation report, the Bank of England reescalated its hiking

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2000 Here We Come?

June 21, 2023June 22, 2023

“This is a very low probability event.” So said SocGen’s Manish Kabra of a prospective

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4 Comments on 2000 Here We Come?

Bearish. Ceteris Paribus, Of Course

June 20, 2023July 2, 2023

Even if Treasury’s cash rebuild ends up funded primarily through RRP transformation, the liquidity backdrop

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4 Comments on Bearish. Ceteris Paribus, Of Course

‘Outright Bullish’ Investors May Get ‘Rude Awakening,’ Bear Warns

June 20, 2023June 21, 2023

“Investor sentiment and positioning has turned 180 degrees,” Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson said Tuesday, as

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1 Comment on ‘Outright Bullish’ Investors May Get ‘Rude Awakening,’ Bear Warns

Markets Want Adrenaline Shot For China. Now

June 20, 2023June 21, 2023

Dribs and drabs. The PBoC is easing in dribs and drabs. Once China cut rates

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Who’s Buying The Next Round?

June 19, 2023June 20, 2023

I’ve suggested again and again over the past week or two that the fate of

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Why Markets Doubt The Fed’s Hawkish Posturing

June 17, 2023June 19, 2023

The market doubts seriously the notion that the Fed will be willing and able to

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Why The Bears Were Wrong

June 16, 2023July 2, 2023

Why were the bears wrong on equities (and particularly on US equities) during the first

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7 Comments on Why The Bears Were Wrong

Laughing In The Face Of Danger

June 16, 2023June 17, 2023

More than $22 billion flowed into global stock funds over the latest weekly reporting period,

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ECB Not Considering Pause, Lagarde Says, After June Hike

June 15, 2023June 16, 2023

Inflation has been “coming down” in Europe. That’s the good news. The bad news: It’s

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Dotting The I

June 14, 2023June 15, 2023

“We didn’t make a decision about July. Of course it came up from time to

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Aggressively Hawkish Dots Should Overshadow Fed Pause

June 14, 2023July 2, 2023

The Fed on Wednesday pressed the pause button on the most aggressive rate-hiking campaign in

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

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Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

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Hell Or High Fashion

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Escape Artists

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