This time last month, US financial conditions, as measured by various Wall Street gauges, were
Category: Markets
Too Quiet?
Is it too quiet? That question came up again and again over the past two
Grin And Bear It
By now, it’s well understood that corporates took full advantage of the inflationary macro environment
Why Marko Kolanovic Expects Higher Volatility In 2024
The same factors which’ve mitigated the impact of the Fed’s hiking cycle on corporates and
Marking Time
This week started out like every other week in the world’s conflict zones and across
What To Expect From The Final FOMC Meeting Of 2023
Headed into the final FOMC meeting of 2023, a few observers were anxious about Jerome
The ‘Waller Doctrine’ And The History Of First Cuts
The past six weeks were defined by growing conviction in Fed rate cuts. Although that
Hartnett Spots Animal Spirits As Sentiment Gauge Jumps Most Since 2012
The animal spirits are stirring. That’s according to BofA’s Michael Hartnett who, in the latest
Kolanovic Sees ‘Worry Or Perhaps Even Panic’ In 2024
“We think that the decline in inflation and economic activity that we forecast for 2024
Bank Of Japan Speculation Reaches Fever Pitch
There’s something amusing about employing the term “early” to describe a prospective Bank of Japan
With Apologies
Part of writing about macro and markets in the post-Lehman world is coping with the
US And China Find Common Ground. In A Moody’s Outlook Cut
Beijing is “disappointed.” With a lot of things and also with a lot of people,
SOFR Spike: What To Know
A SOFR spike! Who’s excited?! I don’t know how much attention this’ll garner among casual
Rate Cuts And Profit Growth? History Says No
“From where we are sitting, the market remains clueless about where 10-year bond yields or
I’m Sorry, Wilson!
“I’m sorry, Wilson!” (Who’s seen Cast Away?) If you’re looking to trade the early-year bullish
Are Stocks Too Calm For Comfort?
“It’s quiet. Too quiet,” as the old cliché goes. As the new week dawned, some
Record Highs Or Santa Crash? Wall Street Looks Ahead After Historic Rally
It’s rational to ask if asset prices are destined to buckle under the weight of
Powell’s Nuance Confirms Fed Finished Hiking Rates
Jerome Powell participated in a fireside chat on Friday at Spelman College in Atlanta, Lisa
Who Called The ‘Everything Rally’?
What a difference five weeks makes. The one-two-three punch of a conciliatory nod to the
Sooner Or Later, Bond Bear Will Return, Hartnett Says
Market participants witnessed enough remarkable developments over the past fours years to burn retinas. November
Hedging The End Of The World
Regular readers are familiar with my views on the futility of hedging geopolitical risk. I
Druckenmiller Gets A Reminder: America ‘Isn’t A Corporation’
Last month, Stan Druckenmiller sat down for a fireside chat with Paul Tudor Jones at
The Waller Sea Change
It’s hard to overstate the significance of the apparent tone shift from the Fed regarding
After $200 Million Bond Short Payday, Ackman Bets On Fed Cuts
Two months ago, I said Bill Ackman probably cared a lot more about the money
‘This Can’t Be What They Had In Mind’: Reflexivity On Parade
I’ve been on (and on) about the Fed’s financial conditions reflexivity problem. The dynamic is
Adventures In The Vol-Scape
During the three-month selloff in US equities from August to October, AUM growth for ETFs
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