If you’re the Fed, there are good arguments against coming out swinging with a 50bps
Category: Markets
Accursed Month
Goldman’s Scott Rubner was right. Markets were, as it turns out, predisposed to pre-trading a
There’s A Bear In There
The holiday-shortened US trading week wasn’t kind to equities. The world’s benchmark risk asset par
Buy The Dip? No. Sell The Cut.
The Fed’s likely to cut “aggressively” and when it comes to risk assets, it’s best
Who You Gonna Believe? Stocks, Bonds Tell Divergent Recession Stories
One of the key macro-market talking points headed into this month said benchmark equities (i.e.,
Goldman’s Rubner Sees Scope For Larger Correction Before Late-Year Rally
The market’s pre-trading a challenging seasonal that normally waits until the back-half of September to
Cut Calculus
The US curve disinversion looks to have some staying power. The 2s10s turned positive Wednesday
Another VIX Dealer Convexity Event: What Really Happened On Wall Street Tuesday
If you’re wondering what, precisely, happened to US equities on Tuesday — where “precisely” means
Return Of The Growth Scare
The growth scare’s back. Wall Street stumbled (hard) out of the gate at the beginning
Don’t Expect Additional Big Stock Gains, Mike Wilson Warns
Guess who isn’t bullish? “We see limited upside at the index level on a six- to
Historic US-Japan Wage ‘Crossover’ Tips More Market Turbulence, Albert Edwards Says
If you had to make the case against investor complacency and you could only use
‘The Better 40’
Is 60/40 well and truly dead? I doubt it. First of all, 60/40’s a religion.
Traders Eye S&P’s Worst Month As Curtain Closes On Wild August
In with a roar, out with a whimper. That was August. A month that began
The Profits Are Fine
Earlier this week, I suggested US equities would have a hard time rising without Nvidia.
Poor People Cited As Dollar General Plunges Most Ever
Poor people get blamed a lot for a lot in America. Including for their own
Nvidia Beats, But Huang’s Revolution Faces Impossibly High Bar
“Hopper demand remains strong, and the anticipation for Blackwell is incredible,” Jensen Huang beamed, rhapsodizing
Big Numbers, Hard Landings
Big numbers. (“Loud noises!”) Market participants were focused on big numbers ahead of… well, ahead
Stocks To Get $43 Billion Of Support Over The Next Week. If They Behave
Interest in systematic flows — and specifically the effort to anticipate and quantify their impact
$55 Billion Stock Crash Underscores China’s ‘Inevitable’ Date With Deflation
Earlier this month, PDD founder Colin Huang usurped water baron Zhong Shanshan atop the list
FOMO, Nvidia And ‘All-Time High Watch’
Goldman’s Scott Rubner is “back on all-time high watch.” Writing Monday at the beginning of
Powell’s ‘Tetonic’ Shift And How To Make 50% In Six Days
I hesitate to say anything that might be construed as even remotely predictive vis-à-vis markets
Rate Cuts Are Coming
Jerome Powell’s keynote address in Jackson Hole was overtly — unequivocally, deliberately — dovish. No
Powell Emphatically Dovish: Fed Now Focused On Protecting Labor Market
“The time has come for policy to adjust,” Jerome Powell said Friday, during a hotly-anticipated
Rate Cut Parties, CRE Slow-Burns And Recession Canaries
The Fed’s “loath to impose” reality on liquidity takers. So said BofA’s Jared Woodard, channeling
A Big Source Of Systematic Stock-Buying Is Back. Will It Matter?
This’ll seem a bit repetitious to some readers, but it’s worth another mention: Vol control
Is ‘The Whole Economic Edifice’ About To ‘Fall Apart’?
There’s something a bit strange about suggesting market participants are nervous. After all, we’ve just
‘Several’ Fed Officials Would’ve Supported A Rate Cut Last Month: FOMC Minutes
“Many participants noted that reported payroll gains might be overstated,” an account of the July
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