Well, it’s official: Kevin Warsh isn’t Kevin Hassett, which is to say Warsh isn’t the rate-cutting super-patriot Donald Trump hoped he might be.

The Fed kept rates on hold Wednesday, as expected. Only one of 54 professional Fed watchers polled by Bloomberg saw a different outcome. John Barron, Chief US Economist at World Liberty Financial, penciled in a 150bps cut.

“We should lower interest rates,” Barron explained, when reached for comment. “We built a country by doing great and having rates low.”

Although Warsh “didn’t have the courage to do what should have been done,” as Barron put it, in the same remarks, the new chair did shake things up during his first meeting at the helm of the world’s most important institution.

The statement was concise, bordering on curt. So concise, in fact, that it’s amenable to a verbatim reprint without risking any undue disruption to the editorial flow:

The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate. The Committee reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.

Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.

Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee’s 2% goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability.

There you go. That’s all you get from Warsh. That statement’s just a third the length of a typical Powell-era statement, and now looks more like something that might’ve emanated from a pre-Lehman Fed.

Recall that the Committee was widely seen dropping its anachronistic easing bias on Wednesday. There were three dissents in favor of jettisoning the implicit nod to rate cuts at the last meeting. Warsh “solved” the problem by jettisoning forward guidance altogether.

To restate the obvious: There’s no defensible case for cutting rates in the near-term, although The White House will surely claim that “peace” in the Mideast, and the accompanying oil price relief, removes an obstacle to additional easing.

Notwithstanding an argument that says the (conveniently-timed) Iran MOU gives Warsh air cover to leave the door open for cuts, the macro facts on the ground argue that such a move would be folly.

Headline inflation’s running two full percentage points above target and we’re one CPI uptick (or UNR downtick) away from YoY growth on the all-items gauge exceeding the jobless rate.

The economy’s adding nearly 200,000 jobs per month on average, consumer spending’s holding up (see Wednesday’s retail sales report) and with the S&P loitering at or near records, the wealth effect’s in full swing.

Real Fed funds, you’re gently reminded, is now negative and as such, it’s more than a full percentage point below SEP-implied r-star.

Speaking of the SEP, the dot plot refresh shows half of policymakers now expect to hike rates at least once this year. Warsh, it appears, didn’t submit a rate forecast. He’s not a fan of the dots, nor of forward guidance more generally.

As expected, the new inflation projections reflected sharp upward revisions to the headline and core PCE outlook. Overall and underlying price growth on the Fed’s preferred measure (which Warsh doesn’t like either) will average 3.6% and 3.3% this year, respectively, according to the June SEP.

The growth and unemployment forecasts were more or less unchanged. The 2026 GDP median projection was 2.2% versus 2.4% in March a downward revision that “offset,” if you will, a slightly lower (4.3% versus 4.4%) UNR projection.

There were no dissents on Wednesday. That, many argued ahead of this week’s proceedings, was Warsh’s only real goal at his first meeting: Conveying the managerial capacity to cobble together unanimity around the language for an refashioned policy communiqué.