“At the depth of the market selloff last December, we set a controversial S&P 500 price target of 3,100 for 2019”.
Category: Markets
What Are The Odds Of A Bear Market? Goldman Drills Down
The good, the bad, the bearish and the bullish.
Make It 3 Out Of 3 On Oversubscribed Repos Covering Year-End Turn
One almost gets the sense that people will be disappointed if there aren’t any fireworks.
Monday ‘Green Shoots’ As Germany, Japan Deliver Upside Surprises On Key Data
Still, nobody should get too excited.
World’s Biggest Auto Market Extends Historic Slump As China Car Sales Fall 17 Months Out Of 18
To call this “unprecedented” would be to grossly understate the case.
FX Trading Is ‘Increasingly Complex And Fragmented’, And Volatility Is Near Record Lows. What Could Go Wrong?
“The current market configuration has emerged largely during a prolonged period of low volatility”.
No Pain On Wall Street, Main Street? No Gain In Quest To End Trade War, History Shows
It would be both correct and incorrect to say the week ahead will be all about trade.
The BIS Explains ‘Highly Unusual’ September Repo Chaos
“The mid-September tensions in the US dollar market for repurchase agreements (repos) were highly unusual”.
China’s November Trade Data Is In. Exports Disappointed
November’s trade data is something of a mixed bag, but on balance…
Why Subadra Rajappa Sees US Treasury Yields Falling To 1.2%
… and the Fed delivering 100bp of easing in the first half of 2020.
Goldman’s Macro Model Did A Decent Job Predicting Volatility In 2019. Here’s What It Says For 2020
It’s worth adding a generic caveat…
All’s Well That Ends In A Blistering Jobs Rally
Frankly, this was an unnerving week, payrolls aside.
2019’s Cross-Asset Bonanza Is Tough Act To Follow
But don’t be so quick to suggest things will be “unexciting”.
One Year Ago, Ajay Kapur Told Central Banks To Wake Up. Here Are His 4 Key Questions For 2020
Last year, “the two most asked questions were also the most misleading, from the point of making money”.
Shady Global Cartel Meets With Russian Conspirators In Vienna To Collude On World’s Most Financialized Commodity
Back-stabbing is part of cartel life, don’t ya know?
Gamma ‘Close To The Cliff’, Raising Risk Of ‘Asymmetric Move Higher In Volatility’
Mind the gravitational field.
Storm Clouds Over German Industry Stubbornly Refuse To Clear
Another day, another dour data point.
Japan To Roll Out Stimulus Package Totaling 26 Trillion Yen
It may fall flat. We’ll see.
For Volatility, 2019 Is No 2017. But 2021 May Be
Looking back at history, it generally takes around two years for those feedback loops to fully manifest themselves.
As Trade Talks Hang By A Thread, A Soybean Problem Emerges
This is pretty simple, really.
ISM Services Isn’t ‘Great’ – ‘Again’ Or Otherwise
Maybe this is enough to get a dovish lean out of the Fed.
ADP Is Out-And-Out Whiff, Prints Worst Since May
“The job market is losing its shine”.
One Of Wall Street’s Biggest Bulls Is Cautious On 2020. Here’s Why
It’s not bearish, but it’s not sanguine either.
Trump On Thin Ice With Traders As US Stocks Sink Third Day
“I don’t watch the stock market”.
Nomura’s McElligott Warns: ‘We’re Nearing Gamma Flip Risk In SPX’
Dry kindling, meet struck match.
SocGen Finds ‘The Most Depressing Chart Ever!’
“I find this depressing.”
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