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Category: Markets

Return Of The Queen

January 19, 2021January 19, 2021

Risk sentiment was generally buoyant Tuesday, as market participants watched Janet Yellen make the case

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2 Comments on Return Of The Queen

One Pro Reveals His ‘Just To Get Myself Into Trouble’ Trade

January 18, 2021January 19, 2021

This is my “buying a hedge in another market just to get myself into trouble”

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3 Comments on One Pro Reveals His ‘Just To Get Myself Into Trouble’ Trade

As Yellen Takes Treasury Reins, Dollar Bears Emboldened

January 18, 2021January 21, 2021

Janet Yellen isn’t going to pursue a weak dollar policy. Or at least that’s what

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1 Comment on As Yellen Takes Treasury Reins, Dollar Bears Emboldened

With Trade War Lost, Trump Throws Last Punch In China Fight

January 18, 2021January 19, 2021

The consensus narrative around the Trump administration’s final push to squeeze Beijing ahead of Joe

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3 Comments on With Trade War Lost, Trump Throws Last Punch In China Fight

Earnings Season Is Upon Us. But Does Anyone Care?

January 17, 2021January 23, 2021

Earnings season is upon us, but it’s not clear how much the numbers matter. Last

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Inside The Bubble

January 17, 2021January 25, 2021

Years ago, an episode of Family Guy (the edgy cartoon sitcom) featured a subplot that

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16 Comments on Inside The Bubble

‘Agnostic’ Sellers: The ‘Doom Loop’ During The Pandemic

January 16, 2021January 18, 2021

Name something more potentially dangerous than “a large, fundamentals-agnostic, owner of equities.” Go ahead, I’ll

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2 Comments on ‘Agnostic’ Sellers: The ‘Doom Loop’ During The Pandemic

2021: A Rotation Odyssey

January 16, 2021January 18, 2021

The pro-cyclical rotation finally came. For years, fleeting bouts of outperformance from perennial laggards (e.g.,

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6 Comments on 2021: A Rotation Odyssey

‘They’

January 16, 2021February 8, 2021

“They know about the stretched valuations and everything that must go right to keep stocks

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5 Comments on ‘They’

Leaving Washington

January 15, 2021January 17, 2021

What a week it was. US equities fell Friday, amid dour retail sales and doubts

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4 Comments on Leaving Washington

A Deadly Cocktail (But The Factories Are Ok)

January 15, 2021January 15, 2021

At least the manufacturing sector is holding up. On a day when retail sales posted

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1 Comment on A Deadly Cocktail (But The Factories Are Ok)

Surprise! Retail Sales Are Total Debacle

January 15, 2021January 17, 2021

Late last week, when December payrolls showed the leisure and hospitality industry shed nearly a

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3 Comments on Surprise! Retail Sales Are Total Debacle

What, No Champagne? Markets ‘Remarkably Indifferent’ To $2 Trillion Biden Plan

January 15, 2021January 16, 2021

As soon as Joe Biden finished speaking on Thursday evening (and even before he started),

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3 Comments on What, No Champagne? Markets ‘Remarkably Indifferent’ To $2 Trillion Biden Plan

JPMorgan Beats Helped By Reserve Release, But Dimon Delivers Caveats, Warnings

January 15, 2021October 13, 2021

JPMorgan kicked off earnings season Friday, with Wall Street’s five largest banks on track to

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1 Comment on JPMorgan Beats Helped By Reserve Release, But Dimon Delivers Caveats, Warnings

Why Do We Bother? (No Time Soon)

January 14, 2021January 15, 2021

It’s weeks like this when you wonder why we even bother with markets. Sure, there’s

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4 Comments on Why Do We Bother? (No Time Soon)

Disaster Strikes As Jobless Claims Suddenly Surge To Almost 1 Million

January 14, 2021January 19, 2021

Nearly 1 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week, a rather disconcerting development that

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8 Comments on Disaster Strikes As Jobless Claims Suddenly Surge To Almost 1 Million

Alibaba, Tencent Spared Trump’s Wrath. Xi ‘Hopes’ Starbucks Can Thaw Cold War

January 14, 2021January 14, 2021

Maybe it was just my espresso high (which would be ironic in this case), but

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1 Comment on Alibaba, Tencent Spared Trump’s Wrath. Xi ‘Hopes’ Starbucks Can Thaw Cold War

Of Bonds And Bernie

January 13, 2021January 13, 2021

For the second consecutive day, bonds rallied and a strong auction result suggested the Treasury

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2 Comments on Of Bonds And Bernie

Fed ‘LOLables’: Nomura’s McElligott On When Rising Real Rates Will Become A Problem

January 13, 2021January 13, 2021

When it comes to client inquiries, Nomura’s Charlie McElligott hears the following more than any

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4 Comments on Fed ‘LOLables’: Nomura’s McElligott On When Rising Real Rates Will Become A Problem

Old Mac’Donald’

January 12, 2021January 12, 2021

Markets plodded along Tuesday, exhibiting a familiar sense of annoyed apprehension. In simple terms: Anyone

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1 Comment on Old Mac’Donald’

The ‘Totally Appropriate’ Tail Risk

January 12, 2021January 20, 2021

It’s not likely that Americans, as a body politic, will come to any kind of

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6 Comments on The ‘Totally Appropriate’ Tail Risk

Here’s When Higher Yields Will ‘Become A Problem,’ According To One Bank

January 12, 2021January 13, 2021

When will rising US bond yields become a problem for equities and risk assets more

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3 Comments on Here’s When Higher Yields Will ‘Become A Problem,’ According To One Bank

Despite Virus Mutation, ‘Unprecedented Riot’ In D.C., Goldman Says World In ‘Home Stretch’

January 12, 2021January 18, 2021

I’ve used the “light”/”tunnel” analogy. Goldman calls it the “home stretch.” However you choose to

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7 Comments on Despite Virus Mutation, ‘Unprecedented Riot’ In D.C., Goldman Says World In ‘Home Stretch’

Beneath The Cloud Of Abject Insanity

January 11, 2021January 12, 2021

I’m not sure you could call it “angst,” exactly. Coming off the weekend, US markets

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8 Comments on Beneath The Cloud Of Abject Insanity

Breakeven ‘Overshoot’ Belies Lingering Disinflationary Probability, One Bank Says

January 11, 2021January 11, 2021

Is the move in breakevens overdone? One bank thinks the answer is “maybe.” If you

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2 Comments on Breakeven ‘Overshoot’ Belies Lingering Disinflationary Probability, One Bank Says

Where We Are & Where We Could Be Going

January 11, 2021January 11, 2021

You can thank, in part anyway, the virtuous volatility compression feedback loop for US equities’

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11 Comments on Where We Are & Where We Could Be Going

Bitcoin, ‘Reliable Store Of Value,’ Collapses 20% In 48 Hours

January 11, 2021January 11, 2021

Bitcoin collapsed on Monday, although “collapse” is a relative term when you’re talking about something

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4 Comments on Bitcoin, ‘Reliable Store Of Value,’ Collapses 204 In 48 Hours

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • WeeblesWobble (ButTheyDon'tFallDown) on ‘Let The Oil Flow!’ Again!
  • Wave Dash on ‘Let The Oil Flow!’ Again!
  • Blognonymous on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…
  • Mr. Dog on ‘Let The Oil Flow!’ Again!

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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