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Category: Markets

Zeus’s Catch-22 (Forget The Bonds. Take The Cannoli)

March 19, 2021March 20, 2021

The Fed faces a “Catch-22,” BofA’s Michael Hartnett said, in the latest edition of the

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5 Comments on Zeus’s Catch-22 (Forget The Bonds. Take The Cannoli)

Fed Waters Down SLR Expiration With Allusions To Modifications

March 19, 2021March 22, 2021

After an agonizing delay, the Fed finally made an announcement on supplementary leverage ratio relief.

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Lab Work

March 19, 2021March 19, 2021

It’s not clear, to me anyway, why they bothered. I’m sure “BOJ watchers” spent the

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1 Comment on Lab Work

Baked Alaska

March 19, 2021March 22, 2021

Chinese stocks crumbled Friday, diving nearly 3%, a slide some attributed to acrimony during high-level

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12 Comments on Baked Alaska

What Wall Street Thinks Of Jerome Powell Now

March 18, 2021March 23, 2021

The bond market wasted little time taking Jerome Powell up on his implicit invitation to

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6 Comments on What Wall Street Thinks Of Jerome Powell Now

Philly Fed Prints A Half-Century High Scorcher

March 18, 2021March 19, 2021

If you were looking for a scorching indicator to support the contention that the US

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Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Jump As $242 Billion Hits Bank Accounts

March 18, 2021March 21, 2021

770,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week, far more than anticipated. The uptick comes

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Erdogan Allows Another Rate Hike At Critical Juncture For Turkey

March 18, 2021March 18, 2021

“[We’ve] decided to implement a front-loaded and strong additional monetary tightening”… is something you don’t

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Pushing The Envelope

March 18, 2021March 18, 2021

Jerome Powell’s uncharacteristically deft navigation of treacherous waters around the March FOMC meeting provided a

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Against The Odds, Powell Threads Needle. For Now

March 17, 2021March 18, 2021

Jerome Powell’s odds of skating through the March FOMC press conference unscathed were long. There

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5 Comments on Against The Odds, Powell Threads Needle. For Now

Fed Snubs Market On Median 2023 Dot, But Upgrades Inflation Forecasts

March 17, 2021March 20, 2021

Fed officials offered a modest upgrade to their assessment of the US economy at the

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3 Comments on Fed Snubs Market On Median 2023 Dot, But Upgrades Inflation Forecasts

Dot Obsession And What’s Next For Stocks

March 17, 2021March 18, 2021

If you asked Nomura’s Charlie McElligott ahead of the March FOMC, there was scope for

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Is The US Housing Market Cooling? (Probably Not)

March 17, 2021March 18, 2021

Housing starts cooled again in February, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Traders and investors weren’t

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2 Comments on Is The US Housing Market Cooling? (Probably Not)

But The Textbook…

March 17, 2021March 17, 2021

The Fed was poised to be the only game in town Wednesday, with traders and

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5 Comments on But The Textbook…

Bassman: When Markets Implode, Short Convexity Lurks Near Crime Scene

March 16, 2021March 17, 2021

  Investment managers display a bias to being short Convexity; a payoff profile where the

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2 Comments on Bassman: When Markets Implode, Short Convexity Lurks Near Crime Scene

Dalio Tells ‘Crazy’ Story, Is Bullish ‘Stuff,’ Bearish ‘Stupid,’ Short Cash

March 16, 2021March 17, 2021

Ray Dalio is confused about your behavior. Specifically, he doesn’t understand “why in the world”

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9 Comments on Dalio Tells ‘Crazy’ Story, Is Bullish ‘Stuff,’ Bearish ‘Stupid,’ Short Cash

‘Massive Days Ahead’ With 2% Seen As Correction Trigger For Stocks

March 16, 2021March 17, 2021

There are “massive days ahead,” Nomura’s Charlie McElligott said Tuesday, as the March FOMC loomed

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In Milestone, COVID No Longer Top Tail Risk For Fund Managers

March 16, 2021March 20, 2021

“Investor sentiment is unambiguously bullish,” BofA’s Michael Hartnett wrote, in the color accompanying the March

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3 Comments on In Milestone, COVID No Longer Top Tail Risk For Fund Managers

US Retail Sales Plunge Ahead Of New ‘Stimmy’ Surge

March 16, 2021March 21, 2021

Last month, the market was treated to a flaming hot read on US retail sales,

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‘Astra’nomical Problem Or ‘Temporary’ Setback?

March 16, 2021March 17, 2021

Maybe it’s complacency or maybe it’s the number of safe (as far as we know)

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5 Comments on ‘Astra’nomical Problem Or ‘Temporary’ Setback?

Buy High, Sell Higher

March 15, 2021March 16, 2021

Everywhere you turn there’s a dazed soundbite these days. The overt nature of the fiscal-monetary

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3 Comments on Buy High, Sell Higher

New Year’s Resolutions, Infrastructure And Drunken Darts

March 15, 2021March 24, 2021

While regular people are still sorting out how to allocate their “stimmy” (and I’m still

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5 Comments on New Year’s Resolutions, Infrastructure And Drunken Darts

Whither Your Stimmy, Good Sir?

March 15, 2021March 22, 2021

A quick scan of social media (and a “quick” scan is all I can subject

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7 Comments on Whither Your Stimmy, Good Sir?

Wait-And-See Mode

March 15, 2021March 15, 2021

I don’t know if I’d call it “trepidation.” At the risk of trafficking in nebulous

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Is There Ever A Bad Time For A Good Hedge?

March 14, 2021March 15, 2021

It’s “awfully early” for this discussion, and BofA’s Michael Hartnett readily admits as much —

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Until Something Breaks?

March 14, 2021March 17, 2021

The increasingly tense standoff between the bond market and the Fed will culminate this week

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The Complete Application Of Blockchain Implies Human Subjugation

March 13, 2021March 14, 2021

I am uncertain if humans understand the consequences of the complete application of blockchain technology.

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Monthly Letter

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