Geopolitics! Won At 4-Month Low, Lira Sinks, Trump Says ‘Very Severe’ Shit Is Goin’ Down

Well, the won is at four-month low against the dollar on Thursday because, well, because a mushroom cloud over Seoul isn’t an entirely far-fetched proposition. “The won is under pressure as it appears North Korea is getting closer and closer to its nuclear program and that is causing tension and apprehension in the Korean peninsula,”…

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SocGen’s Kit Juckes Is “Back From The Alps”: Here’s His Quick Pocket Guide To An Uncertain Market

The tough thing about a market dominated by geopolitical concerns is that geopolitics is country- or at least region-specific. There’s nuance, idiosyncrasies, thousands of years of history peculiar to this country or that, religious undercurrents, etc., etc. You have to take all of that into account when trying to make sense of markets in the context of multiple geopolitical powder kegs.

Fortune Cookie Say: “Good Econ Data!” The Sultan Returns. Welcome To Monday.

Boom! It’s Monday. Let’s hit the ground running.

Daily Kickstart (Japan Battles Bond Markets, Mexico/Turkey Battle FX Traders, May Meets W/Trump)

As is rapidly becoming custom, we start with FX markets, where the USDJPY rose again, recapturing a 115 handle following the BoJ’s 10th bond buying operation of the month. If we hit 116, the dollar rally could gather some momentum “as the market seems to be short vol above that level,” one European trader told…

Daily Kickstart (Dollar In Focus As UK Court Rules; Lira Plunges)

On Monday evening I said I’d likely find myself talking about the dollar again first thing Tuesday morning and sure enough… As noted last night, the greenback came under renewed pressure around 4:30 p.m. EST when Bloomberg ran comments from Trump’s Treasury pick Steven Mnuchin who said “from time to time, an excessively strong dollar may have negative…

Gun To Your Head, Which Do You Go Long: Mexican Peso Or Turkish Lira?

“Choose wisely”…

Daily Kickstart (“I Had Some Bad Chinese”)

We’re gonna need a weaker yuan. Data out Friday showed China’s exports falling 6.1% y/y in dollar terms, well more than the 4% decline economists predicted. Imports rose 3.1%. The trade surplus for the month came in at $40.8 billion, lower than consensus ($47.6 billion). (Chart: Bloomberg) “External demand remains sluggish,” Wen Bin, a researcher…

Daily Kickstart (Dollar Doldrums)

Oh how the mighty (greenback) has fallen. The consensus trade of 2017 is having a rough go of it following Wednesday’s Trump presser which offered little (if anything) in the way of details around the President-elect’s fiscal stimulus plans. Of course that was easy to see coming – all anyone cared about was Russian hacking and…

Cold Turkey: Currency Crisis Looms For NATO’s Favorite Autocrat

Ok, so I know it’s been a rough stretch for everyday Turks. In fact, it’s somewhat ironic that Turkey is the corridor for Mid-East refugees as you’d certainly think that between the incessant violence and Ankara’s transition to a completely autocratic form of government, it would be the Turks themselves fleeing to Western Europe. But while…

Daily Kickstart (Dear Mexico, We’re Sorry About All This)

I think I can probably sum up Wednesday with one sentence and one chart…

Daily Kickstart (Go Home Lira, You’re Drunk Edition)

“There is still much uncertainty about how his exact economic agenda will look,” Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen said on Tuesday, regarding incoming President Donald Trump’s plans to restore the American economy to some bygone era of prosperity he imagines we can’t (re)attain without his help. Trump will give his first press conference since the election on…