Is Another “Whatever It Takes” Moment Just Around The Corner?

“If markets turn more negative on the possibility of deposit flights out of the French banking system or on Italian BTPs and banks, the currency can fall more in the absence of a decisive response from the ECB. But, if the ECB were to show a strong hand in the market, buying sovereign debt, this perception could change.”

Read More

French Fries Protip: Don’t Worry About The Second Round, Worry About The First

“Melenchon now has a genuine chance of reaching the second round and, in purely markets terms, he would be as bad, if not worse, for French and European assets. Crucially, polls suggest that if Emmanuel Macron stumbles, the leftist would beat both Le Pen and Francois Fillon in a second-round runoff.”

Read More

SocGen’s Kit Juckes Is “Back From The Alps”: Here’s His Quick Pocket Guide To An Uncertain Market

The tough thing about a market dominated by geopolitical concerns is that geopolitics is country- or at least region-specific. There’s nuance, idiosyncrasies, thousands of years of history peculiar to this country or that, religious undercurrents, etc., etc. You have to take all of that into account when trying to make sense of markets in the context of multiple geopolitical powder kegs.

Read More

Is “Vive La France” The Rallying Cry That Gets Oil To $70? One Bank Thinks So

“Should a synchronous recovery take hold, we believe dollar weakness would be bullish for USD oil prices. While micro supply/demand fundamental oil balances still point to higher oil this summer, oil could soon sing “Vive la France”. We retain our $70/bbl end-of-June target for Brent.”

Read More