Macron, Le Pen Set To Square Off In Second Round

  • MACRON, LE PEN LEAD FRENCH 1ST-ROUND VOTE: IPSOS INITIAL COUNT
  • MACRON, LE PEN LEAD FRENCH 1ST-ROUND VOTE: IFOP INITIAL COUNT
  • MACRON, LE PEN LEAD FRENCH 1ST-ROUND VOTE: ELABE INITIAL COUNT
  • LE PEN GETS 24.2% IN FRENCH INTERIOR MINISTRY PRELIMINARY COUNT
  • MACRON GETS 21.4% IN FRENCH INTERIOR MINISTRY PRELIMINARY COUNT
  • FILLON ENDORSES INDEPENDENT CANDIDATE EMMANUEL MACRON
  • MACRON TO WIN FIRST ROUND IN FRANCE WITH 23.7%, IPSOS SAYS

Via Bloomberg

Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen lead in the early counting of ballots for the first round of France’s presidential election, suggesting they are on track to face each other in the two-person runoff.

  • Macron, a 39-year-old independent, has 23.8 percent of the vote, while the National Front’s Le Pen, 48, has 21.6 percent, according to initial estimates by pollster Ifop. Republican Francois Fillon has 20.3 and Communist-backed Jean-Luc Melenchon has 19.6 percent
  • The figures are based on the initial count of actual votes. Two other pollsters gave similar estimates

Reader commentary

  • Mr Melenchon disappointed in the end – his score ends up higher than in 2012 (last election) – 19% against 11%
  • But these votes essentially expressed disappointment in the Socialist Party and its ‘official’ representative – Mr Hamon
  • However big the discontent, there was no room for Mr Melenchon to grow into a credible challenge of Mr Macron
  • But the combined 26% of Mr Melenchon and Mr Hamon are testimonial to the rejection of ‘traditional politics’
  • Ms Le Pen, less than 22% for the National Front, confirms the strength of her party, in line with expectations but also, as expected, the latest terrorist assault in Paris, last Friday, does not appear to have had much influence – a reassuring sign of responsible voter attitudes.
  • Mr Fillon with 19% could rely on the moat of traditional voters – clearly, it was not enough…
  • Mr Macron has his work cut out – to govern, the new President will need a majority in Parliament (elections in June) and also the full support of the Socialist Party (Mr Hamon has already committed)

https://twitter.com/fordm/status/856210243113672704

https://twitter.com/RevaGoujon/status/856218851599634432

As a reminder for markets:

BarclaysFranceTable

BofAMLFranceTable

Deutsche Bank’s Sebastien Galy is out saying the euro is likely to get a boost of 1-2% based on projections from early counting of ballots. “This is the perfect scenario the market was desperately looking for,” New York-based Galy said in emailed comments to Bloomberg.

Oh, and I almost forgot…

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3 thoughts on “Macron, Le Pen Set To Square Off In Second Round

  1. Don’t know why they are so confident, this is like Hillary beating Bernie, voters now only have one choice if they have any ambition

  2. Remember, one event and the wrong blame and the EU sits in the balance. France what do you want? LePen/crazy or Macron/sanity please choose wisely.

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