“Perhaps over-leveraged US companies have finally reached a limit.”
Category: high yield
Markets Can’t Escape Super-Scary ‘Shadow Of Negatives’
“To my mind, the facts still lean significantly bearish and suggest the phase of broad risk aversion isn’t yet done.”
Ezekiel 25:17
“And you will know my name is the Lord when I lay my vengeance upon thee!”
Junk Rides The Roller Coaster – Did The Bubble Just Burst?
All kinds of people are suddenly talking about the bubble in high yield. Of course
‘An Eye-Watering Bubble’: Euro Junk Bond Yields Now Same As US Treasurys
“The “lust for return†is alive and kicking.”
‘Hint: Sell This’ – Goldman Reveals What To Do In A Junk Rout
“Equity investors are paying attention”…
4 Round Numbers, Apple, And Wednesday In Charts
Just another day in Wonderland…
As Junk Bond Yields Hit Record Lows, A 30% Crash Is Coming – Here’s Why…
“The implication is that high yield credit could be 30%+ mispriced as and when volatility moves back to average.”
Behold: A Junk Tailwind
“There was no immediate catalyst for junk bonds to lose shine, as the VIX was close to multi-year lows and stocks were setting new highs amid steady rise in oil prices.”
These 2 Charts Are Either Bullish Or Bearish For Junk. You Choose…
Of course if you’re determined to stay bullish…
‘The Risk Has Risen’: When Will Oil Prices Matter For Junk?
“In our view, the bar remains high for oil prices to become the main directional driver of HY spreads but the risk has risen.”
Stocks Fly To Records, Global Risk Rally Continues As Bad Data, ‘Good’ Yellen Keep Hope Alive
The message is loud and fucking clear: the vol. seller’s/ carry trader’s paradise and the risk party that’s made every homegamer with some SPY and QQQ look like a guru for the past eight years depends on DM central bankers staying some modicum of dovish. And on that score, bad data helps.
That’s Not Low Volatility, THIS Is Low Volatility…
We both agreed that while suppressed equity vol. grabs all the headlines, it is in fact credit’s Teflon performance that wins the John Gotti prize for “most bulletproof asset class.”Â
You’re Just Going To Let U.S. Oil Producers Drink Themselves To Death Aren’t You?
“We believe this may not send a requisite message to rein in drilling activity for all producers. On the flip side, it sends a theoretical message for producers to issue more debt.”
‘A Few Weeks Ago, We Were Whistling Past The Graveyard’: 2 Charts To Watch In Junk
Now “the high-yield bond market is waking up,” he went on to caution.
If This Is The Big One, ‘You’re Going To Have To See It Here Too’…
“Do as we say in rates and do as we do in credit” – or something.
3 C’s: Crude, Carry, CPI And Your Full Week Ahead Preview
Ok, so it’s Sunday which, as we’re fond of reminding you, means that tomorrow will be Monday – right up until Trump does something that takes the whole of idea of there being a “tomorrow” off the table…
“We Are Close To A Point When The Narrative Changes”: Deutsche Warns On High Yield, Oil
“Historical evidence suggests that D/EV ratios at 60% or higher lead to a material jump in expected credit losses.”
This Is The “Most Vulnerable” Index In Credit To Macro Risk
“Quite in contrast to the past couple of years, this index now appears to be the most vulnerable to macro risks compared to other benchmarks in credit.”
Chart Of The Day: Asset Prices In The Trump Era
See if you can spot what’s still hanging on for dear life at record highs/tights despite lackluster incoming data and central bank tightening…
Full Energy Retard: The Final Chapter
“You gotta be super smart to trade credit, buddy, it’s not easyâ€â€¦
Yeah, It’s Expensive, But These “Dead-End Policies” Will Make It Even More Expensive
“So what are we thinking here?”…
As Short Interest Jumps And Outflows Rise, Bill Blain Warns: “The Amount Of Passive Money Is Scary”
“The liquidity implications of the amount of cash tied up in ETFs are dimly understood. The amount of passive money is scary. Folks might just want it back sometime.”
Goldman Presents: “The Good, The Less Good, And The Ugly”
“Against this friendly backdrop in Europe, fundamentals remain weaker in North America despite the recent signs of improvement since 1Q 2016. Relative to the peak in credit quality reached at the end of 2010, median net leverage ratios remain significantly higher while interest coverage ratios are also lower.”
SocGen: “Any Shift In Equity Volatility Could Be Ruinous”
“However today, US equity markets and debt markets are at odds with each other, US equity market investors are avoiding stocks with poor balance sheets, yet high yield bond yields are down at historical lows.”
“Political Immunity” And Markets
“Technical factors and central bank liquidity have allowed markets to suspend disbelief.”
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