“Today’s post is an important one. I might have put Grandma in the trunk, but the coming struggle between generations is no laughing matter. It very well might end up being the defining theme for financial markets in coming decades.”
As 2016 comes to a close with US risk on a veritable tear thanks to (possibly misplaced) optimism surrounding the prospects for fiscal stimulus under the new commander (and Tweeter) in chief and rates on a similar tear as US 10Y yields drag their counterparts higher, I thought it was worth publishing the following chart from…
Let’s start the week with a bit from Bloomberg’s Richard Breslow who documents the continuation of the reflation trade and (correctly) maps out the critical test facing sovereign yields. There’s lots of supply coming online ahead of the FOMC call and we can likely divine quite a bit from the auctions. Here’s Breslow’s take: This…
Ok so this is interesting. One would think, given the experience of the beleaguered US energy complex, that US corporates would be loathe to rack up too much leverage in the post crisis world, especially now that the Fed looks set to finally embark on a hiking cycle. Apparently however, that’s not the case. Have…
Well, the reflation trade (see here for more) marches on as the 10-year tacked on another 6 bps to move to 2.47%: This is is something you need to pay close attention to. Remember, we’re talking about some $1 trillion in losses since July. Here’s Goldman: We predicted that a 100bp interest rate shock would…
Do you believe in miracles? Apparently somebody does, which is why we’re seeing record after record on Wall Street in the wake of Donald Trump’s surprise ascent to the highest office in the land – a confirmation of the populist surge that propelled the Brexit vote, led to the downfall of Matteo Renzi in Italy,…
The problem is simple, suppressed vol allowed vol targeting strats to lever up but when vol spikes, these strats are forced to rebalance (i.e. sell). Here’s what Bloomberg had to say earlier today: The capitalization of a global bond-market index slid by $450 billion Thursday, a fourth day of declines that pushed the week’s total above $1…
Presented with no comment, other than to gingerly ask “contrarian indicator?”… (Charts: SocGen)