Reflation Trade Continues As Yields Climb, Bond Rout Intensifies

Well, the reflation trade (see here for more) marches on as the 10-year tacked on another 6 bps to move to 2.47%:

10year

This is is something you need to pay close attention to. Remember, we’re talking about some $1 trillion in losses since July. Here’s Goldman:

We predicted that a 100bp interest rate shock would translate into over $1tn in market value losses. Recent events tested that prediction, as 10-year Treasury rates have risen 100bp from the lows in July. Over the same period, we estimate that market value losses for the Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index amounted to $910bn.

reflation

And here’s Bloomberg with a summary of today’s action and what’s in store:

  • Treasuries declined, with benchmark yields approaching 2016 highs, as stronger-than-forecast U.S. consumer sentiment bolstered bets that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week.
  • The U.S. 10-year yield rose six basis points to 2.47 percent at 4:47 p.m. in New York, nearing the 2.49 percent level reached last week, the highest since June 2015. The benchmark 30-year yield set a 17-month high at 3.17 percent. The Treasury will hold auctions of both maturities next week ahead of the Fed’s decision on Dec. 14.
  • Ten-year yield has increased this week by the most since the period ending Nov. 18
  • U.S. consumer confidence jumped more than forecast this month; the University of Michigan said Friday that its preliminary index of sentiment rose to 98, the highest since January 2015, from 93.8 in November
  • U.S. yield curve from two to 30 years steepens for second straight day
  • Treasury will sell $24 billion of three-year notes and $20 billion of 10-year notes on Dec. 12; will issue $12 billion of 30-year bonds on Dec. 13

Thank God stocks aren’t pushing their historical valuation limits and are thus available as a kind of safety valve, bargain buy if we want to rotate out of fixed income and avoid the unwind.

Oh, wait…

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