So yeah, “carry” on – but just remember that “what goes up”….
Category: emerging markets
Danger, Will Robinson! Emerging Market Bond Funds See Slowest Inflows In 23 Weeks
On Monday, we spent quite a bit of time talking about EM debt funds and
‘People Are Going To See There’s No Liquidity’: EM ETFs Face ‘Minsky Moment’
As for what’s in store, Hauner warns that once “the big Minsky” moment comes, “people will be sitting on these ETFs and find there’s no liquidity.”
An Anomaly Emerges In Emerging Markets
One fund just lost a quarter of its YTD inflows…
‘They Will Only Act To Avoid A Panic’: BofAML Has A Message For You
“We believe that central banks would be willing to let the markets correct lower and would act only to avoid a panic that could affect the recovery and the inflation outlook.”
An Emerging Problem?
“There are just too many goddamn headwinds”…
‘Sudden Selloff’: It’s Time For Emerging Market Investors To Be ‘Deeply Fearful’
“But that changes when the Fed’s major peers are all raising rates at the same time or when there’s speculation they will do so. The chances a sudden selloff become much greater.”
Geopolitics! Won At 4-Month Low, Lira Sinks, Trump Says ‘Very Severe’ Shit Is Goin’ Down
Well, the won is at four-month low against the dollar on Thursday because, well, because
3 C’s: Crude, Carry, CPI And Your Full Week Ahead Preview
Ok, so it’s Sunday which, as we’re fond of reminding you, means that tomorrow will be Monday – right up until Trump does something that takes the whole of idea of there being a “tomorrow” off the table…
BIS: “The End Will Resemble A Financial Boom Gone Wrong – With A Vengeance”
If those deep forces have not yet fully run their course, the end of the current expansion may be different. That end may come to resemble more closely a financial boom gone wrong, just as the latest recession showed, with a vengeance.”
“Hakuna Matata”?
“In our opinion, this is not dangerous market complacency but a reflection of an abnormally tranquil macro environment, with a benign economic outlook, very supportive financial conditions, and lower political risks”…
Chart Of The Day: Asset Prices In The Trump Era
See if you can spot what’s still hanging on for dear life at record highs/tights despite lackluster incoming data and central bank tightening…
A Royal Shakeup, China’s Big Day Falls Flat, Crude Reality Bites
Ok, well for obvious reasons, the headlines overnight pretty much all revolved around: Saudi Arabia
Unlike “Pundits” Who Are Always Wrong, One “Risk Taker” Actually Cares About His P/L
“While the pundit class can be wrong on a regular basis with no repercussions, for risk takers the P/L never lies.”
“Carry” On, Or Not So Much? Emerging Markets After The Fed
So one of the interesting things to note about the price action we’ve seen over
SocGen Warns: “If It Walks And Talks Like A Bubble, It Probably Is”
“The bursting of a debt bubble in China would have far-reaching negative implications for emerging markets either via the risk sentiment channel or through commodity prices, global growth, and the global supply chain.”
Brace For Impact: Full Week Ahead Preview
“While improving manufacturing confidence has recently added to the constructive global risk environment (characterized by dovish central banks, low cross-asset volatility and rising equity prices), a potential increase in political uncertainty in the US may undermine this backdrop.”
Peak Complacency? The Hedges Are Coming Off In Emerging Markets
As is the case with high yield, this is probably a good time to ask
Nikkei Tops 20,000 On Batshit Crazy BoJ Balance Sheet; Global Stocks Rise Ahead Of Jobs
Well, the Nikkei crossed 20,000 for the first time since 2015 overnight. And really, why
Goldman Presents: “The Good, The Less Good, And The Ugly”
“Against this friendly backdrop in Europe, fundamentals remain weaker in North America despite the recent signs of improvement since 1Q 2016. Relative to the peak in credit quality reached at the end of 2010, median net leverage ratios remain significantly higher while interest coverage ratios are also lower.”
Trader: “We’re Struggling To Understand Why Things Are Even Happening”
“So we function in a world where risk assets keep going up while we couch everything in risk-off terms. It’s not enough that our central bankers think they can play with our heads under the fiction that they are masters of nuance, we do it to ourselves.”
BofAML Has A New Carry Indicator – And It’s Approaching “Exuberant”
“The latest reading is at the 81st percentile, which has preceded a EM carry sell-off in the next four weeks 58% of the time over the 10 year backtested period.”
“This Sort Of News” Is Bad, But “There’s A Wall Of Money Out There”
“Flows into EM assets persists despite this sort of news that you’d think would have the opposite impact.”
Chinese Stocks Stage Hilarious Comeback After “Absolutely Groundless” Moody’s Downgrade
It’s all fun and games until someone gets downgraded. So last night, Moody’s handed China
An “Emerging” Disaster Or “Carry” On? You Decide
We’ve said for quite some time now that it probably isn’t entirely rational to think that
Brazil’s Black Swan In Context: Another “Since The Crisis” Moment
The President appeals to Supreme Court to suspend investigation on him. No, that’s not breaking news
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