US housing starts fell more than expected in June, data out Tuesday showed. Last month’s
Category: economy
Who You Gonna Believe, Economists Or Those Lyin’ CEOs?
When it comes to forecasting, no year is a truly good year for economists. And
‘Priced Out’: Builders Fret As Reality Sets In On US Housing Bubble
In a development that should surprise exactly no one, homebuilder sentiment plunged this month to
BĂȘte Noire
A few days ago, a reader suggested the Fed, having woefully miscalculated while appraising both
US Retail Sales Data Complicates Already Fraught Fed Calculus
US retail sales rose more than expected in June, key data out Friday showed. Market
Chinese Economy Flatlines, Further Imperiling Full-Year Target
The Chinese economy barely grew during the second quarter, data out Friday showed. At 0.4%,
Hubris And ‘Dangerous Groupthink’
Christopher Waller wasn’t prepared to unequivocally endorse a 100bps rate hike at this month’s FOMC
Fed, Politicians, Economists Are Gaslighting Americans On Inflation
Markets scarcely needed another reason to fret about inflation after June’s harrowing CPI report, but
Meanwhile, In China…
China logged a record trade surplus in June, data out Wednesday showed. There were caveats
US Small Business Outlook Plunges To New Record Low
America’s small business owners have rarely felt worse. Ask them about the outlook for the
Markets Are Obsessed With A Term No One Can Define
The US is either in a recession already or headed into one soon. Now if
What If God Was One Of Us
Inflation data out of the US will dominate headlines in the week ahead, but it’s
Hot Jobs Report Leaves Fed Locked In On 75
The US economy added far more jobs than expected in June, the government’s hotly-anticipated monthly
Humans: When Progress Isn’t Progress
I find it useful, refreshing even, to take a step back from time to time.
Mortgage Rates Fall Most Since 2008, But Affordability Worst Since 80s
Good news: Mortgage rates fell dramatically last week. Amid a steep decline in US yields,
An Out-Of-Consensus Prediction
It’s too early to worry about jobless claims, but not too early to pay attention
It All ‘Points To Stagflation’: PMI Headlines Belie Somber Reality
The all-important US services sector held up in June, with caveats. On the heels of
US Labor Market Remains Hopelessly Distorted, Data Shows
US job openings were lower on the last business day of May, closely-watched data out
Bill Ackman Takes Lead In Redefining ‘Recession’
For months, I’ve suggested the only way for the US economy to avoid a recession
‘Not A Lot To Cling To’
Risk sentiment faltered and the euro slipped to a two-decade low Tuesday, as recession worries
China Tariff Rollback Is Too Little, Too Late For Inflation Fight
Desperate times, desperate measures. The Biden administration may soon announce targeted rollbacks of some US
Another Ominous Sign: Germany Logs First Trade Deficit Since 1991
Call it yet another sign of the times. And, perhaps, another ominous sign for the
Turkey Or Zimbabwe? Erdogan’s Inflation Crisis Spirals
Whenever you’re inclined to lament high inflation exacerbated by a legacy of too-loose monetary policy
US Jobs Market Takes Center Stage Amid Macro Angst
If the Fed’s goal is to engineer a reverse wealth effect by tightening financial conditions
‘A Real Emergency’: German Economic Collapse May Be Biggest Tail Risk
Although consensus is coalescing around the idea that the next shock to markets will come
Hell Or High Recession
I don’t like the phrase “something’s gotta give.” It’s overused even as clichĂ©s go. Just
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