“Even though consumers remain relatively positive about the labor market, they still appear to be concerned about elevated prices and interest rates.”
So said Conference Board chief economist Dana Peterson on Tuesday, editorializing around a so-so update on US consumer moods.
Peterson probably didn’t mean to say anything profound — and really she didn’t — but that short quote encapsulates the problem for Democrats headed into the election.
Joe Biden’s approval rating was famously disconnected from the unemployment rate, which loitered near the lowest levels on record for most of his first, and only, term. Democrats insist Biden should get more credit than he generally does for the robust labor market, and they’re probably right. But fair or not, Americans’ perturbation with generationally high inflation and, relatedly, the elevated cost of financing for homes and cars, easily outweighs any goodwill “Scranton Joe” might’ve otherwise been entitled to.
As a quick aside, it pains me to speak about Biden in the past tense. Contrary to popular belief (and cruel memes), he’s not dead. But he’s not running. So, he’s past tense. Sorry, Joe.
Biden’s inflation legacy is Kamala Harris’s inflation legacy too. If I were Donald Trump, I’d key on that rather than getting swept up in personal attacks that have (less than) no relevance for many undecided voters. Note that Harris is pressing a new adjective for the Trump-Vance ticket: “Weird.” It’s resonating so far. It’s condescending without crossing the line into insulting à la Hillary’s “deplorables.” Trump can combat that line of attack by focusing on bread and butter issues. Like inflation.
On Tuesday, the Conference Board’s Peterson noted that consumer confidence simply hasn’t been able “to break free of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years.” The simplest of simple charts (i.e., just the headline gauge) makes the point.
The pandemic knee-capped the national mood, and no sooner was everyone feeling better than inflation came along and torpedoed sentiment anew.
Now here we are, in some kind of limbo. That characterization (i.e., limbo) is supported by the expectations gauge in the Conference Board’s survey which, some readers will recall, has spent the better part of two years at or below the threshold that generally presages a recession within 12 months.
Similarly, the latest read on Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index was -35 for July. As the figure below shows, that’s egregious in a historical context.
The gauge “did show improvement between November and March, but since then has slid back to where it was in December 2023,” the color accompanying the release said. “During President Biden’s term, confidence has slumped to as low as -58 in June 2022 amid soaring inflation, the worst reading since the Great Recession in 2008 and early 2009.”
In short: Americans are down on the economy. And Harris has to figure out a way to turn that around without resorting to talking points that insult the intelligence of a nation exhausted with inflation. Maybe the Biden economy worked for a lot of people who don’t realize they benefited from Bidenomics, but to tell those voters they’re “wrong” to feel depressed or worried is political suicide.
We know what Donald Trump’s plans for the economy are: Tariffs, unfunded tax cuts and immigration curbs. In his “very, very large brain,” that’s the secret sauce for “a boom the likes of which the world has never seen before,” as he described the US economy in January of 2020 while regaling a flummoxed audience in Davos.
What we don’t know much about is Harris’s plan for the economy other than what we can surmise from re-heated platitudes lifted from a Biden teleprompter speech. She needs to do better than that. Trying to convince the unconvinced that inflation wasn’t Biden’s fault (and it mostly wasn’t) is a waste of time. Instead, she needs to focus on convincing voters that in a Harris presidency, price increases will be so slow that most Americans won’t notice them, the textbook definition of “healthy” inflation.
Unless and until she does that, Trump can simply ask, rhetorically, “How can you trust these people?” And then: “On their watch, grocery prices went up 50% and interest rates are through the roof.”
This month’s write-in responses to the Conference Board survey suggested “elevated prices, especially for food and groceries, and inflation, remain the key drivers of consumers’ views of the economy,” Peterson went on.
The sad punchline is that even if Harris manages to break the so-called “vibecession,” whoever wins in November may well confront a real recession during their very first few months in office.
Some points here that are hard to refute. The media is trying to project her as a pop culture celebrity which doesn’t resonate with serious people. I definitely think agree with Mr. H that she needs to talk seriously about the economy …..but in all her roles before she has never had to talk seriously about the economy. Once her honeymoon period ends…..does that open the possibility, of an open convention ??
This, to me, is one of the more sensible comments here. It was astounding how quickly everybody forgot that she was polling behind every single other possible replacement for Biden, and for good reason. I have never seen someone’s public image be rehabbed so fast and so completely, without anything about them actually having changed.
At the same time, I’m not gonna deny that the most important thing is that Trump not be reelected, but, I have never believed, and this goes back decades, that the best thing for this country is to consistently elect someone whose primary qualification is that they’re only second worst. Although now she looks especially good because not only is she only second worst, but, she also doesn’t have early stage dementia. Spectacular qualifications for office there. I can see the reasons for enthusiasm.
It’s a tough time though, because you also don’t wanna be read as thinking that Breitbart-style dont-think-to-hard-about-them simpleminded talking points are in any way valid or acceptable, and that’s 90% what this guy‘s top comment here was. (These guys always shoehorn some sort of valid observation into their BS to try and lend legitimacy to the rest of it, by and large they haven’t caught on yet that people see through it. That and the “makes outrageous statement”/“no, no, no, OBVIOUSLY I was just joking/misspoke, I don’t believe that and would NEVER say it” dog-whistle tactic are the modern right wing’s overplayed “Stars On 45” greatest hits medley.)
As H observed in a comment on another post today about a different situation: there’s no good guys here. This situation is the Kobayashi Maru. Trump, Biden, Harris, there was no way to win this one, from the get-go. All we can hope for is that we fail with the minimum possible destruction. Honestly, that might actually be Harris, if it has to be one of the three of them… I guess “terrible candidate but not Trump and not in the early stages of dementia” is superior to “ terrible candidate but not Trump” and “Trump”. I find it awful that this is what the choices are, though, and when Biden finally made the right and honorable choice to step down, the Democrats once again showed their skill at correctly identifying an issue and then picking the worst solution to it. It’s like they completely forgot that just 24 hours previous she was the worst possible successor.
Correction: “Breitbart-style dont-think-to-hard-about-them simpleminded” should have read “Breitbart-style dont-think-to-hard-about-them simpleminded and bigoted”. I don’t wanna speak too flatteringly of what was said here.
Forget Jamie – Robert Lightziger will be your bext treasury secretary. And with no reelection pressures he has zero.zero reason to appoint “the right people to govern.” Why sholuld he?
And to your border “crisis” concerns, in the recent Bloomberg BIzweek interview with your candidate, he explicitly said that the #1 economic rebirth measure he is proposing is mass deportations. (It’ll help black people reclaim their jobs picking crops!) If that is your definition of “moderate”, well bless ylour heart.
Jesus Christ “Anon,” you’re off the rails. I knew you were on your way down the right-wing rabbit hole a long time ago, but you’re lost down there now. Listen, my friend, you know you get a free pass to say pretty much what you want to say here, and you know exactly to what you owe that free pass. I’m not going to revoke it, but fair warning: Keep your “mediocre woman” bullsh-t to yourself. Or take it somewhere where that sort of thing’s acceptable. This ain’t the place for it. Nor is this an outlet for your repressed anger re: your employer’s DEI initiatives. There are plenty of insane websites where you can go and commiserate with other angry white men grappling with insecurity and feelings of inadequacy. Don’t do it here. And Kamala’s a great candidate. Trump’s a convicted felon who was found liable for sexual abuse, who bankrupts his own companies, who isn’t actually rich, who stoked a riot on the steps of the Capitol and who’d rob you blind at the first opportunity. The f-ck is the matter with you?
+1
You forgot “open white supremacist”.
I will never understand how a US president posts a video online of a man shouting “white power” and lavishes adoring praise on that man, and four years later he’s running again, and nobody will even mention it. I just don’t understand it.
Well, he did mention that “We are witnessing the ultimate gaslighting…” and we all know by now that with the tRump crew “Every accusation is a confession”. So nothing new to see here except for the exceptional moderator who never disappoints.
You “recall reading …??” A really quick google search shows that BLS data says that engineering and architectural professionals unemployment peaked at 6% in June 2020 but has been averaging about 1.5% for the past 2 1/2 years. 0.8% most recently. Not very consistent with your made up recollection
Is this “made up”?
https://www.businessinsider.com/hiring-slump-professional-white-collar-jobs-recession-high-salary-2024-4
Will she do a Donnie Drumpf and attempt to “bully” J.Pow into cutting rates a couple of times more than expected before the election?
No.