‘Sick Man’ Germany Blights Decent Eurozone Growth

The sick man’s still sick.

Europe’s largest economy contracted on both a QoQ and YoY basis in Q2, according to a preliminary estimate released on Tuesday.

The lackluster showing from Germany was a blight on an otherwise decent eurozone growth update. Germany’s statistics office provides few details in the initial release (the full breakdown won’t be available until the second estimate) but indicated that business spending and construction were weak.

France, by contrast, posted a 0.3% expansion thanks in part to the delivery of a cruise ship, which boosted exports.

“The discussion on whether or not Germany was Europe’s sick man” was “shelved” after a decent Q1, but “growth in the first quarter was driven by mild winter weather and a downward revision” to the prior quarter’s tally, ING’s Carsten Brzeski wrote Tuesday, in a colorful recap. “Germany has gone through a very mild recovery that actually never was.”

In France, Bruno Le Maire was keen to emphasize that the economy has “outperformed for two years.” “Our economic policies work and are producing tangible results,” he insisted, in remarks to reporters. (Suffice to say some voters didn’t get the message.)

Under the hood, consumer spending in France was flat. Foreign trade and business investment were to thank for the decent headline figure. The government lowered its growth outlook for the full-year in February. Tuesday’s data suggests the 1% projection for 2024 may be too low, but questions about the country’s public finances will persist until there’s more clarity on the political situation.

Overall, European growth was 0.3% in Q2, better than expected.

Q2 marks the second consecutive quarter of decent growth for the bloc, an encouraging result considering the rather onerous rates environment.

The ECB will almost surely cut rates for a second time in September, with inflation having largely normalized. That assessment comes with the usual caveat: Services price growth remains far too brisk.

Coming quickly back to Germany, ING’s Brzeski described the country as “between hope and despair.” “Today’s data once again confirms that Germany is the growth laggard of the eurozone,” he sighed. “Caught between cyclical and structural headwinds, there is no easy way out of this long stagnation.”


 

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2 thoughts on “‘Sick Man’ Germany Blights Decent Eurozone Growth

  1. It’s going to take Germany awhile to right their ship. My view is ostopolitics. They export significantly to China (weak), and used to import energy from Russia. Ukraine/Nato took care of that. Germany has more manufacturing output than most and they are likely having to transition to services. Immigration is no longer on their policy agenda. Right now, they do not have much of a growth catalyst.

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