” The first thing I’d say is that through March 31, as we look at our results, it’s hard for us to see anything that’s suggestive of a material uptick in consumer confidence or consumer or commercial spending.”
Category: economy
Pay Attention! We Got China Credit Data Overnight
Ok, so it’s Friday. And before you get too excited about that, remember that all
“A Pretty Eclectic Collection Of Unrelated Developments”
SocGen’s Kit Juckes probably summed up the overnight session best: Overnight currency drivers have been
What Does An Overheating Labor Market Mean For Stocks? I’m Glad You Asked.
“We estimate that a 100 bp acceleration in labor cost inflation would pose a 2% headwind to Russell 2000 EPS, roughly double the 1% impact we estimate for the S&P 500.”
Trader: “The World’s A Scary Place,” But That’s Always Been The Case
“To be fair, we still have loads of quantitative easing going on and the world remains a scary place. But it’s always been a scary place. We just have selective, as well as short, memories. And if black swans remain your major investing concern, then economic numbers are of very little import.”
Goldman Explains Why The Whole World Is So Goddamn Happy
Because if you’re looking at geopolitical stability, there’s not a whole lot to get excited about. Well actually, that’s not true. There is a whole lot to get excited about. Where “excited” means “fucking terrified.”
Deutsche Bank Explains How You Can Get Off Citi’s “Sketchy” People List
“While the correlation between the level of equities and data surprises in short periods can be strong as it has been recently, the longer the sample the weaker it is as the trend in equities dominates.”
Good News! There’s A 2/3 Chance This Recovery Will Be The Longest In US History
“The bad news is that medium-term recession risk is now rising.”
Albert Edwards Is Back From Barbados And He’s Got (A Lot) He Wants To Tell You
The problem with ‘healthy debateÂ’ is that so many people back themselves into a corner and take any contrary opinion as a personal attack on their very identity as a human being.”
“Honey Badger Don’t Care”: Goldman Asks If Bad News Even Matters Anymore
“However, the S&P 500 was actually up 17 bps on the day the ISM fell, leading to the question of whether investors should trust the positive market performance or the negative macro surprise as an indicator of where the market may go from here.”
It’s Tuesday And Some Folks In Europe Are Doing Some Manufacturing!
Ok, let’s see… It’s Tuesday and there’s some European PMI data you should note. Because
Monday Night Read: One Chart And Some “Hard” Thoughts On “Soft” Data
Right, so if you have a fragile ego and are the type of person who
“America, Fuck Yeah!” Congress Thinks Funding Government May Be Good Idea After All
Last week, it was starting to look like traders had reached peak negativity with regard
Was Q1 GDP “Grossly Distorted”? Oh, And We’ve Been Long RVs Since Day One
Right, so earlier today we got the first read on Q1 GDP and it wasn’t…
GDP Misses – But Hey, It Could Have Been Worse
U.S. First Quarter Advance GDP Grew 0.7%; Est. 1%.
Guest Post: “The Chance Of A Melt Up Has Never Been More Intense”
“Yet too many investors mistakenly believe good old fashioned fundamentals still drive financial asset markets. Nothing could be further from the truth. Since the 2008 credit crisis, Central Bank flows have made a mockery of financial pricing theory.”
Kuroda Shrugs, Twitter Lampoons Sweden, Deutsche Crumbles: Welcome To Thursday
Ok, so as detailed earlier this morning, the first thing you should note about the
If You Believe This “Soft” Data Point, The US Economy Is Growing At 7%!
Don’t forget to laugh.
It’s Tuesday And This Market “Sees No Demons”
“With French political risk significantly reduced (even if there’s still a two-week second round campaign to negotiate), an improving global economy, steadier oil prices, and most of all, range-bound US yields and a lack of fear of rapid Fed tightening, investors see few demons and are off in search of yield.”
Chart Of The Day: “What Goes Up…”
Presented without comment…
After Frozen Jobs Report, Goldman Says Economy Still On F*cking Fire
“We think the labor market is at full employment, with a risk of overheating over the next 1-2 years given our forecast for growth.”
What Caused The Q1 Rally And Why It Can Continue: Deutsche Bank Explains
So in Q1, you did some dip buying, didn’t you? Just admit it. I mean
Wall Street Journal: There’s A ‘Bigly’ Labor Shortage – And Trump’s About To Make Things Worse
You can’t cure stupid. Which means the irony inherent in paying billions of taxpayer dollars to
One Trader Asks: “Jeez Louise, Is It Only Thursday?”
Having spent Monday contemplating how and why traders have lost their confidence, Tuesday explaining that
It Would Be Great If You’d Start Using Your Credit Card… Or Would It?
“Whatever the reason, it’s probably a good bet that consumer spending will remain underwhelming until Americans feel more comfortable using their credit cards again. And while that will provide a boost to both activity and bond yields it will also, ironically enough, set the stage for the next recession.”
It’s Quiet Out There: G-20 Leaves Markets Feeling “Damp And Grey”
It feels quiet out there. Maybe a little too quiet. There’s plenty of G-20 banter
You must be logged in to post a comment.