“…never have forward expectations been so dovish (Chart 4), inflation break-evens been so beaten down, and data surprises been so negative ahead of a Fed hike in this cycle.”
Category: commodities
Guest Post: “I Love Catching Falling Knives – Don’t Tell My Kids”
“I haven’t seen that much red since I pulled up Fannie Mae’s portfolio in the depths of the great financial crisis. Those are some f’ugly numbers.”
Don’t Forget That Iron Ore Crashed Last Night…
So last night Moody’s downgraded China for the first time since 1989. China was pissed.
Chinese Stocks Stage Hilarious Comeback After “Absolutely Groundless” Moody’s Downgrade
It’s all fun and games until someone gets downgraded. So last night, Moody’s handed China
“Thy Orb And Thy Staff They Comfort Me”: “Risk Feels A Bit Better Today!”
Yea, though we walk through the valley of the shadow of death, we will fear no geopolitical tail risk: for Donald Trump art with us; thy orb and thy staff they comfort me…
Oil And China. Because What Else, Right?
It’s Monday. Hell yeah! Let’s start in China, because… well… because where else, right? We
Traders & Producers “Congregated” To Talk Metals Misery: Here’s What They Said
Goldman chats with some folks in Hong Kong…
Goldman Has A Simple Message For You About Retail And Metals
If there’s two places you haven’t wanted to be of late it’s retail and metals.
“This Does Not Bode Well”: One Bank Warns “The Chinese Monetary Put Is In Reverse”
“This does not bode well for commodities, and is particularly true for the China-sensitive commodities of copper and iron ore.”
“Insidious” Conditions, “Destroyers Of Animal Spirits” & Why It’s All “Nonsense”
“In a world where it’s been all right to resist, it’s the antithesis of impetus for change and a destroyer of animal spirits.”
Here’s Another Example Of Stocks Not Caring About The Big Picture
“Chinese rates (including interbank rates) have been climbing through much of Q4 last year and early 2017, but these fears have grown more acute as commodity prices have moved sharply lower and China’s PMI has declined.”
Goldman Tried To Be Nice, But Now They’ll Have To Bring Jeff Currie Into This…
“The Chinese government has adopted tightening policies. The annualized 7-day repo rate shot up to 5.5% on March 21. Most recently, all four PMIs coming out of China last week disappointed, fueling worries about policy tightening negatively affecting real activity.”
Why One Strategist Thinks “Dr. Copper Should Be Sued For Malpractice”
“In these days of rampant commodity speculation in China, however, can we really trust copper to give us an accurate read on the U.S. economic cycle?”…
This Is A Disaster Waiting To Happen
So last week, I put you on “contagion alert” amid the chaos in commodities. I’m not
Trader: “The World’s A Scary Place,” But That’s Always Been The Case
“To be fair, we still have loads of quantitative easing going on and the world remains a scary place. But it’s always been a scary place. We just have selective, as well as short, memories. And if black swans remain your major investing concern, then economic numbers are of very little import.”
Goldman Is Rapidly Losing Patience With You On This Whole Commodities Thing
“You keep tryin’ to distract people”…
“Reply Hazy. Try Again Later.”
See, here’s the thing: Citi values your opinion. Wait. Actually, they don’t. Unless you’re a
“Traders Are Dumping Their Holdings – The Pressure Is Too Great”
So this is probably a good time to remind you that the rout in iron
“Nazi-Be-Gone” Rally Fizzles As Female Hitler Loss Seen Largely Priced In
Ok, so it’s Monday and France didn’t elect a fascist. So we’ve got that going for
One Trader Talks Commodities Carnage, A Witching Hour Reversal, And More
“Stopping after slicing through, but very near, significant lows from last May, September and November. What is one trader’s, “this thing is never going to go up again, so sell any bounce†is another’s, “wow, did you see that quadruple bottom?†The fact that the rally happened almost simultaneously with the Salem, Massachusetts witching hour will certainly get the attention of market forecasters who use methods other than strictly orthodox technical analysis.”
Two Words For Junk: “5th Percentile”
“Moving over the small hump of the French election and back to 2014 we go.”
Barclays Does Best “Frank The Tank” Impression: Don’t “Freak Out” On Commodities
“That’s right! We can’t have anyone freak out out there, ok?”
Contagion Warning: “There’s Nowhere Really To Hide” As Bloodbath In Commodities Continues
Oh, boy. Well, it got worse for the beleaguered metals complex overnight. After a harrowing
This Is The “Single Largest Macro Factor” Shaping Markets
“Oil is being hit by rising U.S. production, copper’s fall was triggered by the whopping LME stockpile-build, iron ore slumped on China concerns, agricultural commodities reversed after a U.S. storm caused less damage than originally feared, and gold is getting hit by the marginally more hawkish Fed and the perceived reduction in European political risk.”
In Your Own Little “Bubble”
All I know is that things are looking choppy here on the island…
Yesterday, Goldman Brought Out Their “Metal Detector” – And Then Today, Tomorrow Happened
“The substantial move lower today was predominantly driven by ‘micro’ and technical factors, in our view, though it was set against a backdrop of broader macroeconomic concerns.”
Guest Post: Wallace Prepares To Buy Some Silver
“The hardest trades are often right ones. I am not sure if it is brave or stupid (and probably a bit of both), but I am going to be buying silver down here.”
You must be logged in to post a comment.