“The days when the Federal Reserve has a large bond maturity have seen abnormally large declines in the S&P 500.”
Category: bonds
Word Is Bond.
Dat’s yo’ word, son?
For One Bank, This Is ‘One Of The Most Striking Developments Of The Past Few Weeks’
Hint: it’s the normalization of U.S. equity volatility.
Retail Sales! Who’s Excited?!
As a reminder, this is the marquee data point in the U.S. this week and it will be yet another opportunity for the market to assess the new, U.S.-centric growth narrative.
Uncharted Waters: Budget Lunacy, The #MAGA Economy And What PredictIt Predicts For Rates
“You will ride eternal, tacky and gold leaf”…
Different Day, Same Stories, Only Different.
But still, read it.
When You Cross The Streams, Why Don’t Stocks Go To Infinity?
“Instead of just tossing the Fed Model aside as useless and broken, it makes sense to think about how it might once again recouple and provide some guidance for stock market pricing.”
Transparency, Trust And The ‘Fed In Wonderland’
“Oh dear! Oh dear! I shall be too late!”
Nuclear Football.
And that’s the week.
‘It All Makes Sense When You Look At It Right’: The Dollar, Yields, Oil And The EM Bloodbath
“…you gotta like, stand back from it, you know”.
The Day After.
One day on…
10Y Yields Are Back Above 3% And Oil Is Surging – What Happens Next?
10Y yields rose above 3% again overnight, so I guess Jamie Dimon is getting closer to being “right” all the time.
Hold My Beer While I Poke This Hornet’s Nest.
Well, he did it.
Goldman Says Overweight Cash As Ray Dalio’s ‘Pretty Stupid’ Cash Holders Still Looking ‘Pretty Smart’
There is suddenly an alternative.
Pushing Against The Big Wave
“And if the money velocity stops declining, and god forbid, even increases, what will happen to the mountain of monetary stimulus that has been administered over the past decade?”
One Trader Ponders The Outlook For Gold
“…what is driving gold more at this point of the cycle? Is it the US dollar, or real yields? Has gold disappointedly not risen as high as the bulls would like given the US dollar weakness? Or has gold not declined nearly as much as the bears would have expected given the run-up in real yields?”
In The Meantime.
And that’s the week.
Riders On The Storm(y).
Turn on your wipers.
Goldman Presents: 3 Reasons To Not Worry And Be Happy
Keep calm and take (some more) risk.
‘Bonds, Bonds, Everywhere!’
“At what price?”
‘Encouraging Things’.
Things no one knows about.
Spaced Out.
Phone home.
Take Note: ‘This Will Have Profound Implications For Everything The USD Touches’
Are you short the dollar (implicitly or explicitly)?
Steve Mnuchin Isn’t Worried About The Bond Market, Ok? So You Can Stop Asking Him, Please And Thanks.
Mnuchin isn’t worried about the supply/demand dynamics in the Treasury market despite knowing full well who is Treasury Secretary.
Bombs Away.
War? Let’s hope so! Happy Monday!
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