The tough thing about a market dominated by geopolitical concerns is that geopolitics is country- or at least region-specific. There’s nuance, idiosyncrasies, thousands of years of history peculiar to this country or that, religious undercurrents, etc., etc. You have to take all of that into account when trying to make sense of markets in the context of multiple geopolitical powder kegs.
Category: 10Y
Fortune Cookie Say: “Good Econ Data!” The Sultan Returns. Welcome To Monday.
Boom! It’s Monday. Let’s hit the ground running.
Yields Fall Sharply In Delayed Reaction To Friday’s Abysmal CPI Print
As expected, 10Y yields are falling on Sunday evening in a delayed reaction to Friday’s
Look Out Below: “Godzilla Returns Next Week”
“Between 2002 and 2016, total purchases from April 15 to December 31 have averaged $90bn.”
It’s Time For A “Tactical Rally” In Bond Markets: Deutsche Bank
If last week marked the “throwing in the towel” moment for Deutsche Bank’s Dominic Konstam with
“Coiled Springs,” Trump The Rates Strategist, And “The Elephant In The Room”
“One question we’ve pondered is whether the best post-election trade is in bond-land or FX”…
Bill Gross Has Some “Brainteasers” For You And Eventually He’ll Say Something About Markets
“Equity markets are priced for too much hope, high yield bond markets for too much growth, and all asset prices elevated to artificial levels that only a model driven, historically biased investor would believe could lead to returns resembling the past six years, or the decades predating Lehman.”
“Nemesis Awaits”: Albert Edwards Warns Of Central Bank Hubris
” Now we have central bankers patting themselves on the back for having done a jolly good job. That surely is the most worrying, hubristic signal of all.”
Two “Bigly”s: Trump WSJ Comments Battle Kim’s New Road For Overnight Supremacy
Well needless to say, Donald Trump’s comments in the Wall Street Journal (which hit at
Is This Over Yet? “If Ever I Needed A Long Weekend, It’s Right Now”
“The hardest challenge of the day may well be not clock- watching. But while you may have been stopped out more than once this week at least you won’t have tenuous positions when they release big numbers tomorrow with the market shut.”
Tape Bomb! Trump Prefers “Low Interest Rates,” Says “Dollar Too Strong”
TRUMP TELLS WSJ UNDECIDED ON RE-NOMINATING YELLEN: CNBC
Dollar Jumps As Tillerson Emerges Alive After Putin Meeting
The dollar (and yields) are spiking as Rex Tillerson and Sergei Lavrov attempt to explain
“All’s Well That Doesn’t End In A Giant Mushroom Cloud”
Well, you know what they say, “all’s well that doesn’t end in a giant mushroom
Trader: Shut That Lyin’ Mouth And “Get ‘Em While They’re Hot”
“Too many commentators have fallen into the “everything is binary†trap and decided that if you assume each event will end badly, there’s material to turn out a good rant”
Crise: “Shhh… We’ve Already Seen This Movie”
So as the market frets day and night about the pace at which the Fed will shrink its balance sheet, Bloomberg’s Cameron Crise is out with a reminder that in reality, we’ve already seen this movie. And if the first screening was any indication, this may be “much ado about nothing.”
“Who’s Behind The Treasury Rally?” Bank Of America Answers
Implicit in the incessant speculation (no “spec” pun intended) about 10Y yields, where they’re going,
Look! It’s Falling Apart: Yields, USDJPY Fall; Stocks Tumble
See how that works?
While You Were Watching That Screaming Guy On The Plane (Again), I Was Buying Yen
Well, it kinda feels like everyone just said fuck it and bought the yen overnight
Trader: Investors Know Where They’re Going, Just Not How To Get There
“Typically, traders have a pretty strong opinion of how they think things currently stand and then try to craft a narrative of where they believe asset prices may be going. In today’s environment, investors seem to have more confidence in their longer-term outlook than on what is going on now.”
Gundlach: “This Reflation Trade Is Going Away”
We’ve been saying since January that investors were showing signs of fading the reflation narrative
We’re At “An Inflection Point” – Here’s How NOT To Play It
Over the weekend, we talked a bit about the “seismic battle taking place between the
#Thiswasabadidea: Amid All Kinds Of War, Janet Yellen Takes To Twitter To Calm Nervous Markets
Oh what a difference three days and one Dudley makes. See, you (and a whole
“And The Rippers Mumbled ‘Thank Your Lord'” – Home “In” The Range With An FX Trader
“Don’t you just love it when these great communicators say “some people misconstrued what I said last week?â€
This Is How Much QE Matters…
Right, so 10Y yields are all anyone wants to talk about. In fact, you’ve probably
One Bank Throws In The 10Y Towel: A “Suckered,” “Reluctant,” “Half-Hearted,” “Failure”
Behold: how to turn 2 words into 363.
9 Charts: Feel Free To Ignore Them
Nobody likes to feel stupid, right? Right. That’s where humanity’s natural tendency to rationalize comes
10Y Yields Hit YTD Lows After Miserable Jobs Number
This was just about the last thing the reflation narrative needed following last night’s decision by the Trump administration to launch airstrikes against targets in Syria. Predictably, yields and the dollar are plunging with the 10Y yield hitting YTD lows.
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