“The main difference between where we are today and where we were in previous tantrum episodes is positioning”…
Category: 10Y
One Trader Doesn’t Like Your “Hyperbole,” But He’ll Let It Slide As Long As You Don’t Mistake A Passing Pigeon For “Paree”
“It’s been a week filled with hyperbole. Trial balloons dressed up as pre-commitments. A little volatility described in cataclysmic terms and compared to jarring historical market upsets.”
And God Said “Let There Be Data: And There Was Data.”
It’s Friday and God said, “let there be data: and there was data.” Let’s start
A Better Way To Short The Bond Market
“This morning I have decided to write about US swap spreads. I know, you are already reaching for the delete key, but wait”…
Trader: “Black Swan Events Happen A Lot More Often Than They’re Supposed To”
“The Fed has enjoyed free-ridership of doing so while everyone else is still printing away. This has meant that financial market conditions have taken it wholly in stride. To assert that this will be the case when everyone else join is making a big assumption about the efficacy of the cure.”
Yo, They’re Selling The Shit Out Of Some Government Bonds
Yeah, so the cacophony of hawkish commentary from central bankers has triggered a global selloff
Humpty Dumpty And The Euro…
“All the king’s soldiers”…
Euro, Euro, Euro
It will take more than anonymous ECB sources to cool the desire to bet on
About That Fed “Policy Mistake”…
“The thesis that the Fed has made a policy error would seem to imply two claims: that the Fed’s hawkish stance has led to excessive tightening in financial conditions, and that this in turn has caused the economy to slow more than intended. Neither of these has happened.”
Trader Delivers Celebratory Warning: “We’re About To Have A Two-Way Market Again”
“It was no small feat. And the fact that it was very much a global phenomenon makes it all the more significant. Investors should have been jolted into the realization that we just might be about to enjoy the healthy benefits of a two-way market.”
Stocks Fall Across The Globe As Hawkish Central Banks, Washington Jitters Roil Risk
Well, the overnight action was predictable under the circumstances, but it’s nevertheless unnerving for anyone
“Is It Really Only Tuesday?” One Trader Weighs In On Today’s Important News
Earlier this morning, we said the following about a series of comments from Mario Draghi
Euro Surges On Draghi’s “Three Messages,” Dollar Eyes Janet, Yuan “Suddenly” Jumps
Boy, I’ll tell you what, if you’re a central banker and you’re going to say
“Fatalistic” Markets Give In To Summer Lull, Crude Chaos, Washington “Horror Show”
“In fact it’s odd how fatalistic people seem to be. We used to furiously debate where and when we’d find the canary in the coal mine warning of an imminent market reversal to pounce on. Now, there seems to be blanket resignation that the trend is your master.”
Gold Flash Crashes, “Jubilant” Germans, And Bank Bailouts
Well, gold plunged $18 in seconds on surging volume (18k contracts in a one-minute window)
3 C’s: Crude, Carry, CPI And Your Full Week Ahead Preview
Ok, so it’s Sunday which, as we’re fond of reminding you, means that tomorrow will be Monday – right up until Trump does something that takes the whole of idea of there being a “tomorrow” off the table…
One Trader Trusts Numbers Even Less Than He Trusts You – And That’s Saying Something
“The dictionary speaks of facts and specifics. But in reality it includes, biases, positions and a whole lot of other subjective factors. You and I can, quite properly, look at the same data and react differently.”
Russell Shuffle Day, Brexit Anniversary, & Crude Carnage
It’s Russell reshuffle day, which means equities will likely be jarred out of any summer
Chart Of The Day: Asset Prices In The Trump Era
See if you can spot what’s still hanging on for dear life at record highs/tights despite lackluster incoming data and central bank tightening…
Trader: “You Really Shouldn’t Make It Up As You Go Along”
“They don’t have to be governed only by the lowest common denominator. Nor forever ignore the negative externalities of oppressively low global rates and how they further suppress yields and encourage profligate risk-taking.”
A Kiwi, A Krone, And An Oil Rout
It was relatively quiet overnight session which saw market participants continuing to focus squarely on
Guest Post: The Reverse Tepper Moment
“In the current environment, we have the opposite situation. Either the economy rolls over (which should be bad for stocks), or it bounces, at which point the Federal Reserve continues on its tightening path (which could also be bad for stocks).”
One Trader Has Had It With Your “Wild Projections Fueled By Irrelevant Moral Outrage”
“Traders need to remind themselves that you can’t win the war if you keep losing one battle after another.”
A Royal Shakeup, China’s Big Day Falls Flat, Crude Reality Bites
Ok, well for obvious reasons, the headlines overnight pretty much all revolved around: Saudi Arabia
Dollar Is Happy, Pound Is Sad, And There’s Some Yuan Shenanigans Afoot
It’s about Dudley for the dollar which rose to a three-week high versus the yen
SocGen: This Is The “Real Test For The Party Mood”
“Whether the Fed is raising rates too fast given their inflation mandate or not, they are raising them too slowly to contain asset price inflation. And while the FX market was getting a bit nervous, with falls for the RUB, ZAR and the TRY yesterday, the emerging bond market community was getting excited about 100-year, dollar -denominated debt issued by Argentina.”
Unlike “Pundits” Who Are Always Wrong, One “Risk Taker” Actually Cares About His P/L
“While the pundit class can be wrong on a regular basis with no repercussions, for risk takers the P/L never lies.”
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