“The CTA performance index has ripped in the back half of August after 10s rallied below 2.25%,” Deutsche goes on to write, adding that their “rolling 1m beta analysis shows that CTAs have gotten very long the market.”
Category: 10Y
Why JPMorgan Thinks You Should Just BTFD
“Admittedly, North Korea remains a wild card, but we now believe that one should use any weakness as a buying opportunity.”
Some Folks Are ‘Cheesed Off,’ But Here’s Why The Treasury Rally Can Continue
“At last Treasury yields are rising,” Bloomberg’s Paul Dobson writes this morning, projecting what he imagines
No ‘Apocalypse Now’, But Maybe Later – Full Week Ahead Preview
This week’s market-moving events are likely to be unscheduled. Remember, Irma is still a catastrophic natural disaster even if it didn’t quite turn into a scene out of a bad Jake Gyllenhaal movie. And as the above mentioned Ben Purvis notes, “Kim Jong Un [could decide] to inject himself into the conversation again,” at any time.
Asian Shares Rally, Gold Falls As Markets Breathe Heavy Sigh Of Relief
As noted late last week, things would look quite different on Monday, one way or another.
‘They Bought It All – Literally’
To be sure, traders and investors were left to cope with conflicting signals in the
Liquidation Event?
“…there is less apparent effect for the SPX, but taken together with the behavior of the level of rates and curve slope, the modest depression in SPX at roughly the same post-storm horizon could also be consistent with some asset liquidation.”
‘The Clocks Stopped At 1:17’…
Ok, get ready.
For now, the fiscal-chaos-can has been kicked, Harvey is behind us, and North Korea’s latest nuclear test has come and gone.
But dead ahead is Irma’s landfall in Florida, North Korea’s “founding day” (which by most accounts will be “celebrated” with an ICBM launch), and of course, more gridlock in D.C. We are, figuratively and literally, in the eye of the storm on Friday.
‘Are Hurricanes Good Now?’
Listen, there’s considerable debate out there about what the impact from two catastrophic hurricanes is
Can You Imagine Monday? Treasury Yield Touches 2.0144%, Gold Rises Amid Sense Of Panic
Can you imagine what this is going to look like come Monday if things get dicey over the weekend?…
The Trump Eclipse Bottom
“I couldn’t agree more. I think Trump staring at the Solar eclipse was the bottom for his Presidency. After that, it’s all uphill. Seriously, there is so little expected of him, he is bound to outperform.”
Ok, So What Now?
Just one more day of this before the weekend, when we’ll all get to put up the plywood and hide in the basement as Irma turns Florida into Atlantis and Kim turns Tokyo into Dresden…
It’s Falling Apart: Yields Hit YTD Lows, Stocks Fall As Reality Sets In
“Hope” meets reality, where “reality” means hurricanes, missiles, recalcitrant lawmakers, Fed indeterminacy, and on, and on…
‘Monday Could Look Very Different From Friday’
“There was a lot of market-moving news yesterday. More to come. Unfortunately for traders, the two items with the biggest potential lasting effects are virtually impossible to handicap. And to make matters worse, we won’t know their punch-line until the weekend: when markets are closed for business.”
Boris The Bullet-Dodger.
Seemingly unwilling to risk any further damage to his already low approval ratings, Trump ultimately
Trump, Democrats Agree On Debt Limit Extension – Highlights, Reaction
DEMOCRATS, TRUMP AGREE TO DEBT LIMIT EXTENSION
TRUMP, CONGRESSIONAL LEADERS AGREED ON HARVEY, DEBT LIMIT, CR
SCHUMER, PELOSI: GOVT FUNDING, DEBT LIMIT EXTENSION TO DEC. 15
TRUMP, CONGRESS AGREE ON HARVEY AID, DEBT LIMIT, CR THRU DEC.15
Twitter Accuses British Geological Survey Of ‘Market Manipulation!’ As Algos Trade North Korea Tweet
To all the Twitter users who are angry at the British Geological Survey for posting an assessment of an earthquake and roiling markets, we would gently suggest that you consider the fact that earth science research is what they are supposed to be doing.
That is, it is their job to study geological events. It is supposed to be your job and the job of the robots “manning” the trading desks to decide what those events mean for markets.Â
A Short’s Desperate Attempt To Put A Bearish Spin On A Manic Squeeze
“Therefore, if you believe the North Korean situation will escalate from here, then, by all means, load up on treasuries. That’s the right trade. Yet, I just don’t see war breaking out, and I suspect North Korea will slip off the front page before you know it. There are no real military options, so the idea of Trump and the rest of the world doing anything more than increasing sanctions is a non-starter. Kim Junior will keep testing his missiles, Trump will keep warning him that he will face severe consequences, and nothing will change.”
Death By A Thousand Cuts.
The bottom line is that between another powerful hurricane approaching the U.S. mainland, U.S. markets catching up with their global counterparts in terms of pricing in North Korea after the long weekend, the DACA decision which portends more bickering in Washington, and the looming debt ceiling debate (with the specter of a technical default showing up in today’s decidedly poor 4-week bill auction), it was death by a thousand cuts.
Yields Tumble, Yen Surges As Perfect Storm Hits Markets
There’s a confluence of factors at play here including Hurricane Irma, Hurricane Brainard (dovish this morning), legislative gridlock that’s likely to be more acute after the DACA decision, and speculation that another provocation from North Korea could come at any time.Â
‘Good Luck, We’re All Counting On You’: Full Week Ahead Preview
To be sure, whatever you thought was going to dominate the news flow in the week ahead is probably going to take a backseat to North Korea, for obvious reasons.Â
But North Korea isn’t the only thing on traders’ minds this week. Not by a long shot.
Harvey, The Debt Ceiling, And Why It Might Be Time To Fade The Pessimism
If you were following along last week, you know that more than a few commentators
Holiday Road.
“Well, that’s nothing to be proud of, Rusty…. 50 yaaaards.”
Manic Markets Reverse Jobs Knee-Jerk, But ‘There’s No Chance Of December Hike’
You want a reason to be dovish, you’ve got one now.
Dollar, Yields Fall As Jobs Report Misses
Well, it’s jobs day and there are a couple of ways you can approach the August print.Â
‘I’m Not Sure I’ve Talked To Anyone That Hasn’t Thrown In The Towel’
“But I have to say, the breadth of the consensus makes we wonder.”
Riders On The Storm.
Right, so the storm wasn’t supposed to come until next month.
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