“Trading has never been a straight line. Even for bitcoin, the cryptocurrency with an ever-impressive performance this year, the ups and downs in the short-term have surely created havoc for investors on a mark-to-market basis.”
Author: therealheisenberg
Vol. On ‘Cheap Market With Fast Earnings Growth’ Just Spiked The Most Since ‘Fire And Fury’
So that’s all fine and good, but the thing is (and we’ve been warning about this for months), you’ve gotta wonder about an equity market that’s seen an avalanche of YTD inflows and until recently was sitting near record highs when, at least by proximity, the country it represents is the most dangerous place on earth (hyperbolic, but you get the idea).
India VIX Soars Most Since U.S. Election As Investors Awake From ‘State Of Complacency’
Tomorrow, we’ll get to see if the U.S. dip-buyers, still hungover from Labor Day, are ready to “face reality” or whether the Target managers-turned hedge fund titans will be on hand to deploy the capital they raised from their neighbors in XIV.
This Has Never Happened Before: Offshore Yuan Cements Record Rally
Meanwhile, you already know the story with the offshore yuan. And that story hasn’t changed. In fact, the offshore yuan rose against the dollar for a 14th consecutive session on Monday – that’s the longest streak on record.
Asian Shares Tumble, Gold Rises As North Korea Said Planning New Missile Launch
“Though considered a tail risk, a military confrontation on the Korean peninsula could see Asian currencies falling 5% to 10% and the region’s equities plunging 20%,” UBS Wealth Management Global CIO Mark Haefele and head of Asia Pacific investment Min Lan Tan write in a new note.
South Korean Stocks, Won Tumble As Traders Weigh Risks
The oil issue has been contentious for its potential to spark a humanitarian crisis. “Eyes are on whether countries will push for an oil embargo on North Korea, which in the past, has served as a trigger for physical conflict,” Takahashi adds.
‘Nuclear Reaction’: S&P, Nikkei Futs Fall, Gold Rises As Markets Warily Eye Pyongyang
These things have a way of reversing themselves in the overnight as investors have been conditioned to fade the initial reaction to North Korea news, but that will be tested given the severity of the provocation.Â
‘Good Luck, We’re All Counting On You’: Full Week Ahead Preview
To be sure, whatever you thought was going to dominate the news flow in the week ahead is probably going to take a backseat to North Korea, for obvious reasons.Â
But North Korea isn’t the only thing on traders’ minds this week. Not by a long shot.
Rangappa: How States’ Rights Became Trump’s Achilles Heel
“Either way, Trump may soon learn that the “states’ rights†ostensibly represented by the monuments and flags he reveres includes the power to bring his campaign team — and even him — to justice.”
USDJPY Dives In Early Trading In First Reaction To North Korea Nuclear Test
Despite the fact that Japan is in the firing line, the yen will of course retail its safe haven status right up to and until traders begin to think the threat emanating from Pyongyang has gone from hyperbole to real, which means this should come as no surprise…
Trump Says U.S. May ‘Stop All Trade’ With Nations That Support North Korea
Earlier today, in the course of documenting the latest out of North Korea, where Kim is apparently busy trying to figure out if he can jerry-rig one of his homemade H-bombs to one of his homemade ICBMs with masking tape and Elmer’s glue, we noted that the last resort (short of war) may be to simply cut off the North’s oil supply.
Well, sure enough…
Here Is The Letter Barack Obama Wrote To Donald Trump
“That makes us guardians of those democratic institutions and traditions — like rule of law, separation of powers, equal protection and civil liberties — that our forebears fought and bled for. Regardless of the push and pull of daily politics, it’s up to us to leave those instruments of our democracy at least as strong as we found them.”
As Mnuchin Warns On Debt Ceiling, Let’s Compare Harvey To Katrina – Because That’s Fun
If you’re not in Texas or if you’re just a cold-hearted, trader cynic who only worries about your P&L, then that’s probably all you care about here, because the sooner the debt ceiling gets raised, the sooner you can cross “technical U.S. default” off your “tail risk” list.
Of course as is usually the case with catastrophic natural disasters, it’s not all good news.Â
Trump Says North Korea ‘Only Understands One Thing’ And He Wishes You’d Let Him Get On With It
Listen, if Pyongyang launches an H-bomb-tipped ICBM and turns San Francisco into a pile of smoldering
After North Korea Nuclear Test, ‘Risk Of Weapon Being Used Is Highest Since Cuban Missile Crisis’
“I think that the risk of a nuclear weapon being used somewhere in the world today is higher than it has been in a very very long time, arguably going back to the Cuban Missile crisis.”
Guess Which Country’s Stock Market Just Fell For The First Time Since The Election…
So for all the talk of how risk assets have largely ignored the threat of nuclear war, we would note that not everything was in fact immune…
Harvey, The Debt Ceiling, And Why It Might Be Time To Fade The Pessimism
If you were following along last week, you know that more than a few commentators
Trump Prepping Withdrawal From South Korea Trade Deal As Early As Next Week
Ok, so if you were going to make a list of things that Donald Trump
Myth: Congress Can’t Impeach Trump For Exercising His Constitutional Authority
“…but that doesn’t mean the rest of the Constitution has nothing to say about it.”
Who’s Excited About Stocks?! I Mean, Besides This Guy…
No, but seriously, the Nasdaq hit a new all-time high on Friday and equities managed to come out of August largely unscathed after risk assets passed a trial by fire (and fury) with flying colors.
Notably, the latest CFTC data shows that traders…
The Storm, Manufactured Existential Crises, And Competitive Games
If you’re reading this, you’re probably in the investment industry, or at least have an interest in financial markets. If you’re in the investment industry or in the financial markets, you like to win. So you’re not going to like my answer.
We play. And we lose.
The Selloff That Never Came: ‘Of Politics And Pullbacks’
One of the defining characteristics of the ongoing risk rally over the past 14 months
The Biggest Impeachment Myth Of All: Trump Has To Commit An Indictable Crime
“But there is no truth in the idea that only evidence of a crime can trigger an impeachment inquiry.”
Holiday Road.
“Well, that’s nothing to be proud of, Rusty…. 50 yaaaards.”
This Has Only Happened 2 Other Times In – Well, In ‘Ever’.
Now admittedly, “2” is a small sample size, but…
Mueller Has Copy Of Unsent Trump Letter Detailing Reason For Comey Firing: NYT
“The May letter had been met with opposition from Donald F. McGahn II, the White House counsel, who believed that some of its contents were problematic.”
EM’s Best Run Since 2004 Continues As Jobs Number Greenlights ‘Carry’ On
That’s all fine and good and we wish anyone who’s still in this trade the best, but…
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