“But in April the reflation story began to lose steam (as Trump trades faltered). Such has been the reversal that last month, ‘deflation’ once again surpassed ‘reflation’ as the trending story.”
Author: therealheisenberg
Yields Tumble, Yen Surges As Perfect Storm Hits Markets
There’s a confluence of factors at play here including Hurricane Irma, Hurricane Brainard (dovish this morning), legislative gridlock that’s likely to be more acute after the DACA decision, and speculation that another provocation from North Korea could come at any time.Â
Stocks Fall, VIX Spikes As DACA News Adds To List Of Worries
It’s safe to say that the market is pricing in some kind of political risk
DACA Decision Immediately Met With Furious Rebuke From All Corners
But as we put it on Monday, Trump is a man who has made a habit out of doing his best Plaxico Burress impression.
Florida Insurers Hit Hard Tuesday As Investors ‘Shelter In Place’ Ahead Of Irma
Shell-shocked from the catastrophic damage inflicted by Harvey, traders are rushing to price in the expected impact from Hurricane Irma, which is now a Cat. 5 storm barreling towards Florida.Â
Thank God For Harvey? How A Natural Disaster May Have Averted A Fiscal Disaster
Whatever the case, the assumption here is that this will get done come hell or high water (with the latter having already arrived in Texas and the former well on its way between North Korea and Irma).
Orange Juice Skyrockets, Cotton Surges As Cat. 5 Irma Threatens Crops
Well, now that Hurricane Irma has become a Category 5 storm and remains on track to make landfall in the U.S. later this week, folks are getting worried about the impact it could have on crops.
And nowhere is that more apparent than in frozen orange juice futures…
One Trader Wishes You’d ‘Stop Pretending That You Care The World’s Ending’
“Just to be clear, nothing moved enough to indicate any panic or identify where safety can really be found. And that isn’t all good. Asset prices pretend to be consumed with issues politic, but in fact trivialize everything.”
Goldman On Gold: North Korea And ‘The True Hedge Of Last Resort’
Last night, we asked if gold might be overbought amid all the fretting over whether North Korea will or won’t pick a nuclear fight with Donald Trump (which is a lot like arming yourself with a butter knife and jabbing it into the ribs of a coked-out chimpanzee waving an M4A1 carbine).
As North Korea Moves ICBM To Launch Site In Wheelbarrow, Kospi Falls 4 Days In A Row
Ok, so following the latest news out of the Korean peninsula, where Kim is apparently using the cover of darkness to move an ICBM fitted to a wheelbarrow to a launch site in preparation for another provocation ahead of (or on) founding day, South Korean shares fell again.Â
Currency Havens For Millennials – And No, Not Bitcoin…
“Sure, they’re unlikely to seek shelter in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies just yet, not even Millennials. But they may well prefer a haven basket that includes more”…
Key Calls (Tuesday): Upgrades, Downgrades & Initiations
You need an upgrade.
North Korea Seen Moving ICBM Into Position For Launch
“North Korea started moving an ICBM-class missile produced from Pyongyang research center on Monday after the nuclear test on Sunday,” Asia Business Daily reports, citing an unidentified official.
Offshore Yuan Falls After Weaker-Than-Expected Fix, Snaps Back
As we’ve said repeatedly, with Chinese equities riding a hot streak, with capital flight seemingly under control, and with a rapidly appreciating yuan bound to weigh on the economy eventually, don’t be surprised if the PBoC takes the opportunity to push back – at least a little bit.Â
Is Gold Overbought Or Will Flying Missiles Make Shiny Doorstops Great Again?
But again, part of the story here is that gold could get some of the haven flows that would normally go to the yen. Because if this gets bad – and reports that Japan is preparing plans to evacuate 60,000 citizens living in or visiting South Korea suggest it might – then investors will likely shun the yen in favor of bullion and the franc (because as far as we know, Kim isn’t firing missiles at Switzerland).Â
Trump’s DACA Decision Could Be Political Suicide
Let’s just step back from the moral depravity for a second and think about this from a purely strategic perspective.
Yes, there’s a kinda, sorta deadline for this decision thanks to 10 states that have threatened to sue the government if it doesn’t stop protecting people brought into the country illegally as children. But obviously Trump isn’t obliged to heed that threat. He could take that risk in the interest of not igniting another racially-charged, political firestorm just weeks after he threw gasoline on the firestorm his bungled response to Charlottesville created by pardoning Joe Arpaio.Â
Japan Reportedly Readies Mass Evacuation Plan For 60,000 Citizens In South Korea
Ok, well this is interesting. Nikkei is out reporting that Japan is planning for a possible
Trump Pens Labor Day Op-Ed About ‘Turning Dreams Into Reality’ With ‘Our Own Two Hands’
“As we celebrate Labor Day, we are reminded of the inherent dignity of work and the American worker. In America, we honor grit. We honor determination. We honor craftsmanship. And we honor the men and women who turn dreams into reality with their own two hands.” “
Maeve Higgins Finds An Enemy And His Name Is Stephen Miller
I’m that first cat, getting tougher, more focused, maybe a bit immortal. “Miller,†I think, “where are you now? What are you doing? Are you using my litter box again?â€
Since 2001…
These concerns have found expression in cautious notes from Goldman and lengthy missives penned by the likes of Howard Marks, who in July implicitly compared the current environment to the “perpetual motion machine” that was at work just prior to the dot-com bust.
Draghi’s Worst Nightmare
“Trading has never been a straight line. Even for bitcoin, the cryptocurrency with an ever-impressive performance this year, the ups and downs in the short-term have surely created havoc for investors on a mark-to-market basis.”
Vol. On ‘Cheap Market With Fast Earnings Growth’ Just Spiked The Most Since ‘Fire And Fury’
So that’s all fine and good, but the thing is (and we’ve been warning about this for months), you’ve gotta wonder about an equity market that’s seen an avalanche of YTD inflows and until recently was sitting near record highs when, at least by proximity, the country it represents is the most dangerous place on earth (hyperbolic, but you get the idea).
India VIX Soars Most Since U.S. Election As Investors Awake From ‘State Of Complacency’
Tomorrow, we’ll get to see if the U.S. dip-buyers, still hungover from Labor Day, are ready to “face reality” or whether the Target managers-turned hedge fund titans will be on hand to deploy the capital they raised from their neighbors in XIV.
This Has Never Happened Before: Offshore Yuan Cements Record Rally
Meanwhile, you already know the story with the offshore yuan. And that story hasn’t changed. In fact, the offshore yuan rose against the dollar for a 14th consecutive session on Monday – that’s the longest streak on record.
Asian Shares Tumble, Gold Rises As North Korea Said Planning New Missile Launch
“Though considered a tail risk, a military confrontation on the Korean peninsula could see Asian currencies falling 5% to 10% and the region’s equities plunging 20%,” UBS Wealth Management Global CIO Mark Haefele and head of Asia Pacific investment Min Lan Tan write in a new note.
South Korean Stocks, Won Tumble As Traders Weigh Risks
The oil issue has been contentious for its potential to spark a humanitarian crisis. “Eyes are on whether countries will push for an oil embargo on North Korea, which in the past, has served as a trigger for physical conflict,” Takahashi adds.
‘Nuclear Reaction’: S&P, Nikkei Futs Fall, Gold Rises As Markets Warily Eye Pyongyang
These things have a way of reversing themselves in the overnight as investors have been conditioned to fade the initial reaction to North Korea news, but that will be tested given the severity of the provocation.Â
You must be logged in to post a comment.