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Author: therealheisenberg

Just Two Old Friends

November 16, 2021November 23, 2021

As long as you weren’t expecting anything substantive from the first face(time)-to-face(time) summit between Xi

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15 Comments on Just Two Old Friends

Shop ‘Til You Drop

November 16, 2021November 26, 2021

US retail sales exceeded expectations for October, data out Tuesday showed. Sales rose 1.7% last

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2 Comments on Shop ‘Til You Drop

Summers Warns Biden, Fed: Control Inflation Or Trump Comes Back

November 15, 2021November 26, 2021

I’ve critiqued Larry Summers at regular intervals over the course of 2021 mostly because, in

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6 Comments on Summers Warns Biden, Fed: Control Inflation Or Trump Comes Back

Gasp! What If The Workers Aren’t Coming Back?

November 15, 2021November 26, 2021

What if the workers aren’t coming back? Seemingly every update on the US labor market

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8 Comments on Gasp! What If The Workers Aren’t Coming Back?

Why US Stocks Will Lag The World In 2022

November 15, 2021November 16, 2021

“Serene progress.” That amusing characterization of global equities’ monumental post-pandemic rally comes from a 64-page,

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2 Comments on Why US Stocks Will Lag The World In 2022

Topics Du Jour: Musk, Bernie, Burry And Bulletproof Stocks

November 15, 2021November 16, 2021

The new week dawned with familiar banter. “Banter” may not be the best word. It

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11 Comments on Topics Du Jour: Musk, Bernie, Burry And Bulletproof Stocks

China Surprises As Key Data Shows Resilience Amid Slowdown

November 14, 2021November 26, 2021

The Chinese economy exhibited further signs of moderation in October, but data out Monday was

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1 Comment on China Surprises As Key Data Shows Resilience Amid Slowdown

‘Turbulence All The Time’: A Never-Ending Energy Crisis?

November 14, 2021November 15, 2021

The impact of green policies “can be explained in one sentence,” JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic said

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Psst! Don’t Tell Them About The Recession Part

November 14, 2021November 15, 2021

As calls grow louder for Fed action to help rein in inflation, it’s important the

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5 Comments on Psst! Don’t Tell Them About The Recession Part

Fragile: Handle With Care

November 14, 2021November 17, 2021

Another eyebrow-raising inflation print and associated tumult in rates means traders will spend the new

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Leave a Comment on Fragile: Handle With Care

A Sea Change In Portfolio Risk Management Is Coming

November 13, 2021November 15, 2021

Earlier this week, in “Why Not 100% Stocks?“, I revisited the debate around the viability

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6 Comments on A Sea Change In Portfolio Risk Management Is Coming

Fed, Biden Risk Credibility Crisis With Inflation Cliffhanger

November 13, 2021November 19, 2021

“Prices surging,” declared alarmist chyrons on Saturday morning news shows in the US. If it’s

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7 Comments on Fed, Biden Risk Credibility Crisis With Inflation Cliffhanger

A Question For Ray Dalio

November 12, 2021November 14, 2021

Ray Dalio wrote about inflation this week. Regular readers know this, but for anyone who’s

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3 Comments on A Question For Ray Dalio

There Are 1.4 Job Openings For Every US Job Seeker (Allegedly)

November 12, 2021November 14, 2021

If you’re jobless, but searching for work, there’s an open position for you. In fact,

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1 Comment on There Are 1.4 Job Openings For Every US Job Seeker (Allegedly)

White House Has Serious Inflation PR Problem, Survey Shows

November 12, 2021November 19, 2021

Consumers are now very concerned about inflation. That might seem like a flippant or otherwise

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2 Comments on White House Has Serious Inflation PR Problem, Survey Shows

‘We Don’t Live In A Society That Pays You What You’re Worth’

November 12, 2021November 13, 2021

It still feels like there’s a bit of cognitive dissonance out there around inflation. Everyone

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9 Comments on ‘We Don’t Live In A Society That Pays You What You’re Worth’

‘Why Not 100% Stocks?’

November 11, 2021November 12, 2021

For what seems like a very, very long time, Wall Street analysts, strategists of various

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4 Comments on ‘Why Not 1004 Stocks?’

El-Erian Lacks Ideas, But He’ll Make Up For It In Hyperbole

November 11, 2021November 13, 2021

Mohamed El-Erian, net worth — I don’t know, a lot — is concerned about “the

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13 Comments on El-Erian Lacks Ideas, But He’ll Make Up For It In Hyperbole

Not Everyone Was Gentle: Market Reacts To US Inflation Surge

November 11, 2021November 16, 2021

Reactions to the hottest US inflation print since December 1990 ran the gamut from apathetic

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2 Comments on Not Everyone Was Gentle: Market Reacts To US Inflation Surge

Evergrande Dodges Death, Xi To Rule For Life

November 11, 2021November 17, 2021

Once again, Evergrande managed to avert a potentially destabilizing default. Despite reports to the contrary,

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2 Comments on Evergrande Dodges Death, Xi To Rule For Life

‘Too Early For The Bunker’: Looking Ahead To 2022

November 10, 2021November 11, 2021

It’s too early to retreat into your backyard doomsday bunker. In general, but also vis-à-vis

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2 Comments on ‘Too Early For The Bunker’: Looking Ahead To 2022

Bon(d)fire

November 10, 2021November 11, 2021

An already tough day for bonds was made worse by a 30-year sale that “boasted”

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1 Comment on Bon(d)fire

Wake Up

November 10, 2021November 11, 2021

Joe Biden on Wednesday noted that jobless claims are down 70% since he took office.

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17 Comments on Wake Up

Scorching US Inflation Report Is Total Disaster

November 10, 2021November 16, 2021

US consumer prices rose far more than expected in October, closely-watched data out Wednesday showed.

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14 Comments on Scorching US Inflation Report Is Total Disaster

Meanwhile, In China

November 10, 2021November 10, 2021

Anything perceived as reducing the odds of incremental monetary accommodation is bad. That simple lesson

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Maybe It’s Not Totally Crazy

November 9, 2021November 10, 2021

On so many levels, the ongoing surge in equities (and particularly US equities) seems patently

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1 Comment on Maybe It’s Not Totally Crazy

Speculative Assets In ‘Peak FOMO’

November 9, 2021November 10, 2021

For months, market participants were infatuated with the idea of “peak growth” and “peak profits.”

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Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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