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Author: therealheisenberg

Party Crasher

August 12, 2022August 15, 2022

Those hoping for one more dovish surprise on the inflation front before the weekend were

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Credit Growth In China Just Plunged

August 12, 2022August 15, 2022

Credit creation in China slowed dramatically last month, notable data out Friday showed. The figures,

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5 Comments on Credit Growth In China Just Plunged

Inflection?

August 12, 2022August 13, 2022

Investors were “back in credit,” “back in tech” and “fading inflation” over the past week.

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3 Comments on Inflection?

Wen Stock Record?

August 11, 2022August 16, 2022

Does the equity rebound have legs? It’s probably time we stop asking that in favor

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1 Comment on Wen Stock Record?

The ‘Then What?!’ Scenario

August 11, 2022August 12, 2022

If you’re looking for a reason to worry (and who isn’t, right?) you might consider

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5 Comments on The ‘Then What?!’ Scenario

‘Peak Inflation’ Camp Gets Another Win

August 11, 2022August 13, 2022

The “peak inflation” crowd scored another win Thursday. 24 hours after warmly embracing a cooler-than-expected

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17 Comments on ‘Peak Inflation’ Camp Gets Another Win

America The Emerging Market

August 11, 2022August 20, 2022

It’s no secret that the last four decades haven’t been especially kind to Main Street.

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13 Comments on America The Emerging Market

Stocks Send Fed A Message: Try Harder

August 10, 2022August 11, 2022

Neel Kashkari isn’t about to let a recession stop him from bringing inflation back down

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4 Comments on Stocks Send Fed A Message: Try Harder

Define Irony: Market Reaction To CPI Undermines Inflation Fight

August 10, 2022August 11, 2022

The knee-jerk reaction across assets to a cooler-than-anticipated read on inflation in the US was

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8 Comments on Define Irony: Market Reaction To CPI Undermines Inflation Fight

Inflation Report Is False Dawn

August 10, 2022August 16, 2022

US inflation moderated in July, handing relief to policymakers, even as households remained beset by

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27 Comments on Inflation Report Is False Dawn

Summer Blockbusters

August 10, 2022August 11, 2022

Wednesday was inflation day in the US and July’s CPI report was poised to rescue

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Dandelion Seeds

August 9, 2022August 10, 2022

This is a pretty tough spot to be in if your job is to make

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4 Comments on Dandelion Seeds

US Housing Bubble Reaches Inflection Point

August 9, 2022August 17, 2022

US mortgage rates fell below 5% for the first time since April last week, but

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5 Comments on US Housing Bubble Reaches Inflection Point

Inflation Is Coming From Inside The House!

August 9, 2022August 10, 2022

In Q1, US labor productivity plunged by the most in almost 80 years. Data for

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1 Comment on Inflation Is Coming From Inside The House!

Key Piece Of Stock Stability Puzzle Falls Tentatively Into Place

August 9, 2022August 10, 2022

August can be an unruly beast for markets. The seasonal is daunting and liquidity is

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3 Comments on Key Piece Of Stock Stability Puzzle Falls Tentatively Into Place

Small Firms Haven’t Been This Worried About Inflation Since 1979

August 9, 2022August 9, 2022

Small businesses have scarcely ever been this worried about inflation. 37% of owners who participated

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3 Comments on Small Firms Haven’t Been This Worried About Inflation Since 1979

Ray Dalio Imagines A US-China War

August 8, 2022August 21, 2022

Ray Dalio has a thought experiment for you. When you get a few minutes, and

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10 Comments on Ray Dalio Imagines A US-China War

New Tech Bull Market? Surely Not

August 8, 2022August 9, 2022

The bull is back in big-cap US tech. Or was back. And could be back

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2 Comments on New Tech Bull Market? Surely Not

Critical ‘Nuance’ On Fed Path

August 8, 2022August 9, 2022

In a sea of Fata Morganas, at least one trade was better than chasing ghosts.

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4 Comments on Critical ‘Nuance’ On Fed Path

Bears, Bulls And The People In-Between

August 8, 2022August 9, 2022

It’s “premature to sound the all-clear,” Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson said, of US equities, which

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6 Comments on Bears, Bulls And The People In-Between

If They’d Just Shut Up…

August 7, 2022August 8, 2022

Fed officials need to stop talking. Or at least dial it down. Back in February,

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7 Comments on If They’d Just Shut Up…

Odysseus And The Sirens

August 7, 2022August 11, 2022

Larry Summers is worried. About good news. Headline US inflation likely decelerated in July, which,

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9 Comments on Odysseus And The Sirens

Buffett Buys $3.8 Billion In Stocks, Loses 10 Times That On Paper

August 6, 2022August 12, 2022

Warren Buffett bought more stock for his hedge fund and logged a massive paper loss

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Fed Risks ‘Disaster’ As Americans’ Credit Card Balances Soar

August 6, 2022August 27, 2022

For the US economy to fall into a proper recession (as opposed to a “technical

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6 Comments on Fed Risks ‘Disaster’ As Americans’ Credit Card Balances Soar

Goldman’s 2023 Recession EPS Case Is BofA’s Base Case

August 6, 2022August 7, 2022

“The larger risk to 2023 EPS is a recession,” Goldman’s David Kostin said, in the

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2 Comments on Goldman’s 2023 Recession EPS Case Is BofA’s Base Case

The Honor’s In The Dollar, Kid

August 5, 2022August 7, 2022

An already convoluted outlook for markets was complicated further on Friday by a jobs report

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11 Comments on The Honor’s In The Dollar, Kid

Fed Pivot Math Seen Wildly Implausible

August 5, 2022August 6, 2022

According to one popular sell-side strategist, a string of “very hot” US economic data could

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3 Comments on Fed Pivot Math Seen Wildly Implausible

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Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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