Goldman’s most out-of-consensus call for 2023 is arguably their most important. Generally speaking, economists and
Author: therealheisenberg
When Life Gives You COVID, Make Lemonade
Notwithstanding ongoing tension in the US tech space, market sentiment was cautiously constructive coming off
Planes, Missiles, Drills And Drones
Tensions flared in three of the world’s powder kegs Sunday and into Monday, as border
Lessons Not Learned
“This is not war,” Volodymyr Zelensky said on Telegram over the weekend. “It’s terror. It’s
US Housing Market Enters 2023 As Bubble-Puzzle
Home sales in the US either tumbled the most on record last month or ran
Visualizing Macro History
Anyone with even a passing interest in markets can make a list of 2022’s “top”
Existential Questions For 2023
As the curtain closes on 2022, existential questions abound. Is the world headed for a
Memory Lane And The 6.5% Unemployment Threshold
10 years ago this month, the Fed added outcome-based forward guidance to its policy statement.
Breach Of Contract
I’m not much for normative statements. Words and deeds can be a lot of things,
Stock Funds See Largest Exodus On Record
Barring a Christmas miracle, 2022 will be the worst year for US equities since 2008.
More Stagflation
The last of 2022’s notable US economic data came in broadly as expected, albeit with
Ghost Of Christmas Past
This time four years ago, Donald Trump was busy berating Jerome Powell’s golf game on
Hot Data And Tepper’s ‘Short’ Call
“Stocks slump as bearish Tepper amplifies hot data,” one Thursday headline said. I suppose this
Surprise US GDP Revisions Blindside Policy Doves
There was more good news of the bad variety out of the US economy on
In Shanghai: ‘We Will Infect The Whole Family!’
I often hesitate to make claims about what is or isn’t going on in Mainland
Not Charity
A Ukrainian battle flag signed by soldiers fighting in Bakhmut was hoisted by Nancy Pelosi
Denouement
“These limited edition cards feature amazing ART of my Life & Career!” Donald Trump exclaimed
US Housing Market ‘Frozen’ As Sales Plunge
Another day, another very poor read on the US housing market. Sales of previously-owned homes
‘Sunshine’
The US consumer is feeling better about the prospects for the economy. Or so said
Guest Of Honor
Volodymyr Zelensky was in Washington on Wednesday. Dmitri Medvedev was in Beijing. 10 months on
No Recession Could Be Bad News For Stocks, Bonds In 2023
One big risk in 2023 is that a hard landing doesn’t happen. That’s counterintuitive and
After The Fall: How To Regulate Crypto After $2 Trillion Collapse
It’s been a bad year for crypto, to borrow Sam Bankman-Fried‘s deliberately understated description of
Why Is The VIX So Low?
At regular intervals this year, sophisticated market participants have gone to extraordinary lengths to explain
Plunging Permits, Falling Demand Add To US Housing Gloom
US housing starts fell less than expected last month, data out Tuesday showed, but that
Markets Ponder The Unthinkable After BoJ Shock
“Symbolically, this is an important step,” SocGen’s Kit Juckes wrote Tuesday. He was referring to
Surprise! Bank Of Japan Stuns Markets With Policy Tweak
The Bank of Japan finally blinked. At its last meeting of the year, the lone
Vox Populi
Much as I’d like to, I can’t ignore the elephant in the room on Monday.
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