Tensions flared in three of the world’s powder kegs Sunday and into Monday, as border skirmishes, military drills and casualties underscored the peril inherent in the most fraught geopolitical landscape since “Cold War” was a proper noun.
Three Russian soldiers were killed by falling debris from a Ukrainian drone shot down over an airbase hundreds of miles from the front lines in eastern Europe. It was the second time this month that Ukraine sent drones deep into Russia.
The Western powers are wary of such incidents, which the US and its European allies fear could tempt Vladimir Putin to cross the nuclear Rubicon.
Since we’re talking drones and nuclear-armed dictators, it’s worth noting that Kim Jong Un flew several “unidentified objects” into South Korean airspace Monday, prompting Seoul to scramble fighter jets and helicopters, which apparently fired a few shots at the mechanical birds.
Serious as the situation was, the incident conjured visuals of the North’s famously childlike despot flying the drones with a remote control, giggling alongside a half-dozen decrepit, visibly malnourished generals all doing their best to look alive lest they should end up dead.
It was the first time in nearly half a dozen years that the North sent unmanned aerial vehicles into South Korea. It wasn’t clear whether the drones were armed. “We identified them with our eyes,” a military official for the South told local media.
“The North’s drone operations have been a source of growing security concerns here, as they could be used for spy operations, as well as potential attack missions against the South,” Yonhap said, in coverage that included an undated file photo showing a North Korean drone — it had a propeller on the front and was no longer than a small dinner table.
Kim has fired so many rockets in 2022 (including a couple of short-range ballistic missiles late last week) that it’s scarcely worth keeping count. The regime in Pyongyang tends to get restless whenever geopolitical circumstances conspire to relegate Kim’s nuclear threat to the figurative (and somewhat literal) back burner.
Late last month, Kim brought Ju Ae, his nine-year-old daughter, to a celebration in honor of the North’s newest and most powerful ICBM. In theory anyway, the projectile could hit any city in the continental US. Kim’s daughter’s first known public appearance was on November 18 or 19, but the world was informed of her existence (and name) nearly a decade ago by NBA rebound legend Dennis Rodman, a frequent visitor to Kim’s hermit kingdom.
It’s likely she has siblings, one of whom may be male. There’s some speculation that the country’s elite aren’t open to a female heir but ultimately, I doubt their opinion matters. Kim’s sister, Kim Yo Jong, took on a more prominent foreign relations role in recent years, and I’m not aware of any internal pushback.
There are, of course, experts on the regime, both within the intelligence community and academia. But at the end of the day, the only salient fact is that the Kim family is an old school dynasty, just one generation away from celebrating a century of rule by what Pyongyang claims is divine decree. The succession process isn’t exactly a debate.
For now, there are two known, confirmed possible successors: The daughter and the sister. If Kim Yo Jong’s rhetoric towards Seoul and Washington is any indication of how she’d be inclined to treat a mutiny in the event of her brother’s untimely demise… well, let’s just say there isn’t going to be a mutiny.
Absent a misstep that prompts external intervention, North Korea will be run by the family in perpetuity, whether it’s Kim, his sister, his “most beloved,” “precious” daughter (as state media described the child) or an invisible male heir nobody’s seen yet.
“While Kim himself may be ready to appoint a female successor, those around him may not be, and he cannot altogether ignore the opinions of the country’s top-ranking leadership,” one former contract analyst for the CIA told Bloomberg a few weeks ago. With apologies: Yes, he surely can. Kim can “altogether ignore” anyone he wants, whenever it pleases him, just like Xi Jinping can altogether ignore dissident opinions among the Politburo.
Speaking of Kim’s patron and benefactor in Beijing, Xi just finished up the most aggressive military drills around Taiwan since Nancy Pelosi’s controversial visit to the island in August.
The PLA dispatched more than 70 military planes in a 24-hour period, almost 50 of which crossed the median line or entered Taiwan’s air defense identification zone. In addition, at least seven naval vessels ventured near the island, according to the defense ministry in Taipei.
Beijing is irritated with the latest US spending bill, which included some $2 billion in funds earmarked for Taiwan’s defense. On Monday, following the drills, the PLA cited “collusion” with the US while explaining the exercises. The Party suggested the latest round of funding from Washington was tantamount to a “provocation.”
“The Eastern Theatre Command of the PLA organized joint combat-readiness patrols and joint firepower strike drills in airspace and waters around Taiwan,” a spokesman said, calling the maneuvers “a resolute response” that demonstrated China’s willingness to take “all necessary measures to firmly defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
As usual, the rhetoric was overwrought, not to mention misplaced. It’s been a long time since Taiwan had designs on retaking the Mainland.
Of course, it’s hardly unusual for the Chinese to chafe at the democratic tendencies of their brethren. That’s just one, among many, similarities between Xi and Kim.
There is a reason communism is an outdated form of government and growing more so with each passing year.
Every time someone escapes from North Korea, whether a soldier or a citizen of the country, they are often found to be severely malnourished and/or infested with worms. That’s what I think about when I see the images and fake smiles of the applauding, skinny guys that are cheering behind their Fearless Leader.
Though Ju Ae and her jolly father, Kim Jung Un, appear to be physically healthy in comparison, every time I see images of the people from North Korea, I recall the comments of doctors who were interviewed after they treated escapees from the north, whether the escapees were shot by North Korean border guards and died, or were injured, or not badly injured. They tended to have bad cases of worms.
While this is largely not the case in China, which has better healthcare, they don’t have MRNA vaccines. And they still cannot manage their own affairs or ignore the fact that they have to kiss the ring of their own Fearless Leader.
Arming Ukraine by the US is only part of the quadrant. It’s the effectiveness of Ukraine military. Lack of effectiveness of the Russian military and non military (Wagner) and finally, what is going on in Moscow (you could also add, to a lesser extent, what is happening in Kyiv). Would definitely recommend Maxim Katz (read bio first) who gives very interesting insights into the situation on the ground in Russia.
It seems like yesterday i was standing behind the cab of a 5 ton in the ink of the dark morning with a magazine full of tracer rounds and two more at the ready, a patrol of infantry scouts loaded for bear kneeling behind me peering outward, and an order to light up (via the tracer rounds) any low flying aircraft that came across the DMZ from the north. The driver maneuvering through the DMZ circuitry in blackout drive to drop off our group, and pick up the group that had completed their days long mission, I had a sense of duty to country, and a sense of my place in history. I felt global ha ha ha.