Add IBM to the ranks of US tech behemoths cutting jobs. The company will give
Author: therealheisenberg
Persistent Disconnects
One of the more remarkable anomalies in a year full of them was the persistent
Hold Your Hawkses
“If economic developments evolve broadly in line with the outlook, Governing Council expects to hold
Leopards, Paper Tigers And Russian Bears, Oh My!
“Before we started sending them weapons they were killing Russians with things you could find
A Slowdown Is A Slowdown
“Growth continued to moderate, particularly in December, and we exited the quarter with Azure constant
Cloudy Forecast Undercuts Microsoft’s ‘Better-Than-Feared’ Results
It’s a good thing Microsoft has a ~$13 billion inside line on the future of
JPMorgan Sees End To Mechanical Bull
Eventually, “risk markets will have to reconnect with the late-cycle backdrop.” That’s according to JPMorgan
‘Stagflation!’ Screamed The PMIs
I’m not sure where we are this week when it comes to the good news-bad
Tug Of War For The World
Simmering superpower tensions were on display this week, casting doubt on the notion that Washington
Lucky Europe, Unlucky Britain
Against the odds, and with a little help from an unusually accommodating Old Man Winter,
Capitol Offense
“When should we worry about the debt ceiling?” concerned market participants ask, every second of
The Cash Is Drying Up
There’s good news from “always and everywhere” land, where tautologies masquerade as wisdom and complex
Flirting With Portfolio Heresy
In January’s monthly letter, I noted that rates strategists are on board with the notion
Mike Wilson’s Earnings Model Sends Dire S&P Warning
“In bear markets like last year’s, when just about everyone lost money, investors lose confidence,”
That’s Great, It Starts With An Earthquake
A running joke during the four-decade bond bull market was analysts’ penchant for suggesting yields
Growing Pains
Traders, investors and Fed officials in their pre-meeting quiet period will all get a look
Going Long A Dangerous World
If you can discern a theme du jour amid rampant macro ambiguity in the early
The Biggest Contrarian Trade Of 2023
It’d be highly unusual if US Treasurys suffered another year of negative returns. In fact,
Plane English
The plane metaphors are as tired as they are ubiquitous. When it comes to analogies,
‘Mission Unaccomplished’
Larry Summers thinks it’s a bad idea for central banks to adjust their inflation targets,
11 In A Row
11 straight months. That’s a long time when you’re talking about deleterious trends, and in
Kolanovic: Recession Isn’t In The Price
Pinpointing the terminal rate may be a fun parlor game, but where Fed funds ultimately
McElligott Spots ‘Ultra-Rare’ ‘Bad News Is Bad News’ Regime
Sometimes, bad macro news is just bad news. Common sense interpretations of incoming data went
The Single Life
US housing starts fell a fourth month in December, and figures for the prior two
Bold Claims
The US economy may be headed into recession faster than many believe, but the labor
Insulting History
“Victory is assured, I have no doubt about it.” Said Vladimir Putin this week, while
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