Early last month, during a fleeting rally for the otherwise beset US long-end, I called
Author: therealheisenberg
Albert Edwards Weighs In On BoJ, ‘Bonkers’ US Fiscal Policy
Albert Edwards isn’t optimistic about… well, anything really, but this week he’s concerned about America’s
A Dovish Hat Trick?
US investors were treated to a dovish hat trick on Thursday, when data showed productivity
BoE Sticks With Innovative ‘Confused Hold’ Strategy
As expected, the Bank of England kept rates on hold Thursday for a second consecutive
‘Persistent’
Jerome Powell was asked on Wednesday if, and to what degree, the recent selloff at
The One Word That Matters In The New FOMC Statement
The Fed kept rates on hold Wednesday, as widely expected. There was no chance of
De-Dollarization Is Happening! On Social Media.
Lots of aggressive tweets with little to show for it. Story of our time, right?
US Labor Market Remains A Riddle
US job openings once again frustrated economists expecting evidence of labor market normalization. There were
Clouds Around US Manufacturing Darken
Bring out the recession predictions. America’s marquee gauge of manufacturing activity deteriorated meaningfully in October,
Treasury Heeds Term Premium With Coupon Caution
Treasury got the message, apparently. The term premium spoke, and at least someone was listening.
Never Again
I don’t know how many people are dead in Gaza. The body count is kept
Ex-Bridgewater Investment Chief Sees 10 More Years Of US Equity Dominance
Every few years, a new cohort of investors stumbles across recycled narratives touting the end
Yen-sanity
The yen was on track for its weakest close in more than 30 years on
Robust Labor Market Severs Sentiment-Spending Link
US consumer confidence dropped to a five-month low in October, not surprising given dysfunction in
Labor Cost Measure Which Banished ‘Transitory’ Comes In Hot
A key measure of employment costs watched closely by the Fed rose more than expected
US Home Prices Hit New Records During Summer’s Dog Days
US home values rose more than expected during the dog days of summer, according to
Europe, China Struggle, Underscoring Stark Economic Divide With US
The increasingly stark divide between a still-thriving US economy and floundering activity in the rest
Kolanovic: ‘Pessimism Rising,’ EPS Estimates Too Rosy
“Investors’ pessimism is rising.” So said JPMorgan analysts led by Marko Kolanovic on Monday. It’s true.
The Santa Melt-Up Blueprint
In “Canaries And Key Levels” and also in “Stocks Look Beyond GDP Barnburner To Price
Two Things: The Borrowing Estimate And The BoJ
Good news. I guess. Treasury slashed its quarterly borrowing estimate on Monday, which I suppose
Refunding Drama: How We Got Here
As discussed here on too many occasions to count over the past week or two,
What Goldman Sees For US Inflation In 2024
Predictions are hard, especially about the future, as the old saying goes, but when you’re
Mike Wilson Doubles Down: No Santa Rally On Wall Street
Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson still doesn’t believe in a “Santa rally” on Wall Street. What
World’s Fourth-Largest Economy Stuck In ‘Twilight Zone’
The world’s fourth-largest economy remains stuck in the “Twilight Zone,” as one bank put it
A Quick Guide To The All-Important Treasury Refunding
This week’s Treasury financing estimate and refunding announcement are a big deal. Indeed, as discussed
Traders Brace For Macro Thriller As Huge Week Looms
It’s a hectic week for the macro community. A daunting bevy of data, including top-tier
Three Big Central Bank Decisions: What To Expect
The Fed will stay on hold this week. In a world plagued by terrifying uncertainty,
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