Dear Kevin: I’d say I feel bad for you, but I don’t. Not even a little bit.
When he took the reins from Jerome Powell in May, Kevin Warsh knew what he was getting into. Just like the rest of us, Warsh witnessed the 10-month-long, White House pressure campaign aimed at compelling the Fed to cut rates, an effort which culminated in a threat to criminally indict Powell, purportedly for lying to Congress about cost overruns for renovations at the Eccles building.
The mere fact that Warsh accepted the nomination was proof he didn’t deserve the benefit of the doubt from market participants. Because no one with any integrity would dignify Trump’s overt attempts to commandeer the nation’s monetary policy, particularly given that the crusade’s ongoing.
Although Jeanine Pirro dropped the Justice Department’s investigation into Powell, that was only to clear the way for Warsh’s Senate confirmation. Trump might very well reopen the probe. And his witch hunt against Lisa Cook persists.
Indeed, Powell cited the clear and present threat to Fed independence while explaining his decision to remain on the board after his term as chair expired. And as I was at pains to explain in June, the Supreme Court’s narrow ruling in the Cook case by no means settled the question of whether Trump can ultimately fire Fed board members.
Warsh is no idiot. He understands all of that. But he took the job anyway. What does that tell you? It should tell you that, at the very least, he conveyed a willingness to play ball (i.e., cut rates or avoid raising them) when and where possible as a condition for getting the nod. Reports that Trump and Warsh spoke on the phone at least three times during the latter’s first three months in the big seat testify to the peril.
On Friday, in a wild escalation, Trump delivered a public ultimatum to Warsh: Cut rates or the US will stop trading with countries that run a surplus with America.
It’s “very simple,” Trump said, while boasting about the latest jobs numbers. “We should have the lowest rate of any country in the world.” Other countries wouldn’t be “considered financially elite without the US agreeing to allow them their big surpluses,” he went on. Then, in all-caps: “LOWER THE RATE OR I’LL STOP TRADING WITH COUNTRIES WITH WHICH WE HAVE A DEFICIT.”
Taking a page out of his 2018 Fed derision playbook, Trump suggested an FOMC that doesn’t cut rates is a Committee at odds with the national interest. “BE PATRIOTS for a change,” he told the Fed. “High interest rates put the USA at a very unfair disadvantage, and I won’t allow that to happen!”
I’m sorry, Kevin. Except I’m not.


Sounds like Trump has his new “my Kevin”.