Must-watch television.
Jerome Powell on Wednesday hosted his final press conference as Fed chair following a policy meeting at which the Committee left rates on hold, as expected.
The new statement was interesting: Three regional Fed presidents wanted to drop the easing bias implicit in the forward guidance, suggesting Kevin Warsh may face dissents early and often if he pushes for cuts while inflation’s still elevated.
I won’t bury the lede: Jerome Powell’s staying on as a Fed governor. Or perhaps it’s more accurate to say he isn’t leaving immediately.
The menacing language Jeanine Pirro adopted last week while announcing the Justice Department’s decision to drop, for now, its investigation into Powell’s communications with Congress around cost overruns for renovations to the Eccles building appears to have made Powell’s decision for him.
Recall that Pirro said she “won’t hesitate to restart a criminal investigation” in the event a report from the Fed’s internal watchdog suggests, to her, that charges are merited.
As noted here last week, passing the probe to the IG isn’t the same thing as clearing Powell, who said in March he wouldn’t step down from the board until he’s satisfied the investigation is “well and truly over with transparency and finality.” Assurances that the investigation won’t be reopened absent a criminal referral apparently aren’t sufficient in that regard.
“I’ve said that I will not leave the board until this is well and truly over, and I stand by that,” Powell said. “After my term as chair ends, I will continue to serve as governor for a period to be determined.”
Powell promised to “keep a low profile” as governor and was adamant that he won’t attempt to subvert Warsh. But in response to a question from Steve Liesman regarding the impetus for his decision to remain on the board, Powell said he remains very concerned about the institution in the context of the Trump administration’s efforts to commandeer monetary policy.
“This has nothing whatever to do with verbal criticism,” he said. “But these legal actions are unprecedented and there are ongoing threats of additional such actions.”
The legal attacks, Powell went on, “are battering the institution” and could, over time, affect the Fed’s ability to make decisions “free of political influence.” Independent monetary policy is what “separates successful countries from unsuccessful countries,” he emphasized.
Everything else discussed at Wednesday’s press conference was an afterthought, but it’s worth noting that Powell said the Fed wants to see “the back side” of the energy spike before making any determination on next steps for policy.
When asked by Wall Street Journal “Fed whisperer” Nick Timiraos why the easing bias Hammack, Kashkari and Logan all came out against on Wednesday is still appropriate, Powell conceded it may not be.
The number of policymakers supporting a change to the forward guidance to reflect two-way policy “risk” (i.e., language that suggests the next move in rates could be a hike) grew over the interim period between meetings.
The issue, Powell suggested, is timing. “There doesn’t need to be a decision on that now,” he said, adding that “it’s a much closer thing on the Committee than it was in March and that makes all the sense in the world to me.”
Coming back to the big story, Powell declined to provide a timeline on when he’ll ultimately step down from the board.
“I’ll leave when I think it’s appropriate to do so,” he told Liesman. “I had long planned to be retiring,” he said. “But the things that’ve happened over the last three months have left me no choice but to stay.”


Good for them. For Powell and Trump.
Glad to hear he will stay: we need all the “adults” in that room we can possibly manage.
That means for now at least, Powell will remain as the only adult in the Trump Administration.
The last good man in the Federal govt.
I’ve been skeptical of Warsh being able to deliver the rate cuts Trump is feening for. I’m more interested in seeing what Warsh does with the Bal Sheet and the “Fed Put”.