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The October CPI Report Is Officially Canceled
Remember when Donald Trump was bound by statute to publish inflation data? No? Me neither.
I've sai
Trump is doubling down on his doubling down. What a guy, he even found time to threaten some democratic members of Congress with execution. I can’t help but wonder how John Roberts sleeps at night. After all he gave Trump the gold get out of jail card. Heck of a present for a man with zero self control.
Apparently there is a fallback for TIPS adjustment – if CPI is not published for a month then they estimate from last month’s CPI and the year-ago CPI, assuming that inflation continued at the average pace over the past year.
Anecdotal numbers paint a bleaker and bleaker picture of this economy, without a cancelled report. Telling us over and over how great everything is will start wearing thin as we approach midterm elections. There will be countless distractions, mostly overseas actions, that Trump and his minions hope will hold his majorities, but I think the jig is up. It can’t go on forever.
Economically sensitive stocks’ action is pre-recessionary, in some cases trading down into recessionary valuations. Defensive stocks are starting to act pre-recessionary as well, in their case that means acting better. It has been difficult to distinguish cyclicality from the capital-sucking of AI/tech. As the suck reverses and AI/tech disgorge capital, watch if econ sensitives underperform defensives.
I think that investors will rely less on top-level, headline macro data. Perhaps reflecting threats to its integrity and timeliness, but also the reality of a bifurcated economy. If the AI investment part is diverging so much from the non-AI part, you want lower level macro data that focuses on the non-AI part.