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Regime Change By Any Other Name
Israel's losing some people. Not nearly as many as Iran and certainly no top officials, but people a
Oil price implying no major disruptions to ME supply ex-Iran.
Quickly reading, it seems like Israeli strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure have so far targeted Iran’s energy supply for domestic consumption – nat gas, gasoline refining, gasoline storage. No report of strikes on Kharg Island export terminals etc.
But if Khamenei’s regime is going down, hard to imagine it not playing the “disrupt oil supply” card. So are oil traders betting on quick de-escalation, or have great faith in US-Saudi air defenses/US Navy?
Xi must be watching nervously.
So is there any chance regime change happens without becoming a complete clusterf***? Are there ISIS-like groups that could threaten territory in Iran or is it possible that they could maintain some stability while the ayatollah rides off into the sunset? Will Donnie end up getting pulled into the Middle East kicking and screaming by our Israeli “allies”?
Seems like regime-change is a done deal at this point, so I’m genuinely curious what’s next? Does Israel have a plan for that or are they going to roll out the “Mission: Accomplished” banner?
It appears that the Iranian regime will need a miracle to come back from this. I have a hard time even guessing what the next chapters in this story will bring.
The problem for Israel of a potential regime change is that it will be be different, only the same. These attacks are themselves radicalizing. When everyone has either lost a loved one or knows someone who has even the most moderate person in the legislature will have to treat Israel as the great Satan
It wasn’t that many years ago that Putin was riding high. He took Crimea and a little extra while Europe and America (barely) wagged a finger; his major asset in the US was ascendant, a crowning achievement; his relationship with Xi was solidifying; his forces were unhindered in their ability to secure African wealth and send it back to Moscow; and his partnership with Iran meant that he had a stake in Iran’s proxy control of Syria plus.
Putin must be more than a little concerned to be (almost) alone now, his detente with Netanyahu notwithstanding, his army reduced by years of ill-advised kamikaze runs for a few more kilometers of ruined farm villages. If Trump had more guile, he would see this as an opportunity to further isolate Putin and take control of his narrative back, show Putin exactly who it is that “holds the cards,” as Trump likes to say. I don’t think Trump has the ability or maybe Putin’s ace up his sleeve (literally, his Trump card) is stronger than we think.
+1. But I think it’s not just Trump and it doesn’t even start with him when it comes to Putin. There’s a whole phalanx to overcome, whether it manifests as those parroting Moscow talking points (hi Tulsi!), or suddenly getting “extra” fiscally responsible when it comes to helping Ukraine defend itself (hi JD, Rand and Ron!).
Beginning to feel like everyone’s air defense capabilities are overstated.
Also thinking Shakshouka is a very good euphemism for the whole situation over there.