“Uncertainty” was the word of the day at Jerome Powell’s post-FOMC meeting press conference, where reporters took turns asking more or less the same question and Powell repeated more or less the same answer.

He began by conceding that near-term inflation expectations have moved up, with consumers and businesses “point[ing] to tariffs as the driving factor,” but insisted, as he usually does, that longer-term expectations are still consistent with 2% price growth. I don’t think that’s true. It certainly isn’t on the University of Michigan’s measure which, Powell’s efforts to suggest the metric’s no more important than any other indicator aside, does matter quite a bit.

The Trump administration, Powell said, is implementing significant changes, and the tariffs are a lot higher than the Fed anticipated. If tariffs are sustained at such levels, inflation’s likely to go up, unemployment too and growth will probably slow.

He reiterated his most recent public remarks (at an Economic Club of Chicago event last month) in noting that the Committee may find itself in the “challenging scenario” where the dual mandate goals are in tension, all thanks to Trump. (He didn’t say that last part, but it was implied).

An astute Steve Liesman noted that “a lot has happened” since the March FOMC meeting. “Are you any closer now to deciding which side of the mandate is going to need urgent care first?” he wondered. “I don’t think we can say which way this will shake out,” Powell said. There’s “a great deal of uncertainty [and we] don’t think we need to be in a hurry.”

Powell proceeded to reiterate that assessment half a dozen times or more. Trump won’t be amused. The White House thinks the Fed should be in a hurry. To cut. Powell was adamant that the Committee intends to be patient, and has no intention whatsoever of rushing into anything. In fact, Powell suggested that barring a significant deterioration in the labor market, June’s nowhere close to a lock for a resumption of rate cuts.

Wall Street Journal “Fed whisperer” Nick Timiraos pointed to differences between this supply shock and the pandemic. Is there anything, he asked, “that could nourish higher inflation besides goods prices?” “The underlying inflation picture is good,” Powell responded, before falling back on a refrain you’re going to hear over and over. “There’s just so much that we don’t know,” he told Timiraos. “We’re in a good position to wait and see, is the thing. The costs of waiting are fairly low, we think. So that’s what we’re doing.”

Timiraos, who knows better, flat out asked if June’s on the table for a cut or not. “It’s appropriate to be patient,” Powell said. “I can’t really give you a time frame.”

In response to a question from a Bloomberg reporter, Powell said that given the scope and scale of the tariffs, it’s possible the Fed “won’t see further progress towards our goals” or that it “might be delayed.” That too is a familiar talking point, and it’s also a tacit admonishment of Trump’s policies.

Colby Smith, who works for the real Times now (i.e., The New York Times, rather than the FT), asked “how much labor market weakness” the Fed needs to see to cut rates. “First of all, we don’t see that yet,” Powell said. “We would look at the totality of the data — the level of the unemployment rate and the speed at which it’s changing.”

Fox tried to set Powell up, or at least that’s how it sounded to me. “Should the Fed be cutting rates at all in 2025?” a reporter from state television wondered, adopting an innocent tone. “There are cases where it would be appropriate to cut rates and cases where it wouldn’t,” Powell replied. Asked by Fox how Trump’s rhetoric affects the Fed, Powell said it doesn’t.

Reuters asked about Powell’s gut feelings on the economy. “What does your intuition tell you?” Howard Schneider queried. “My gut tells me that uncertainty is extremely elevated,” Powell quipped, to nervous laughter from the room. The risks, he went on, have increased, but aren’t yet showing up in the data.