If Donald Trump wanted a weaker dollar, undermining faith in US assets, and particularly threatening to move against the Fed, is one way to go about it.
I’m not sure that counts as “3D chess” though, given the stakes. Maybe I’m just not the grand strategist Trump is, but if you ask me, eroding the appeal of US Treasurys and calling into question the dollar’s reserve status by commandeering the central bank counts as cutting off your nose to spite your face.
In the earliest of this week’s trading, the dollar was back-footed badly, likely weighed down by speculation that the Trump administration, emboldened by a Supreme Court which some believe is poised to overturn key precedent protecting independent agency heads from dismissal without cause, could attempt to remove Powell at any time.
The greenback’s on track for a seventh weekly loss in eight and a ninth in 11 on the DXY, which sits at its weakest levels since 2022. Bloomberg’s broader gauge is the weakest since 2023.
Do note: Treasury yields were higher from seven years out the curve ahead of the US trading day on Monday, which is to say this was yet another instance of a sharply lower dollar set against higher USD yields (i.e., better compensation for owning interest-bearing dollars), a concerning juxtaposition on some interpretations.
Also notable: The greenback continues to slide against the euro, despite a Fed that’s hawkishly inclined and an ECB that’s still actively cutting rates. There again, some suggest that’s a worrying sign.
Late last week, SocGen’s Kit Juckes observed that at nearly 72, the RSI for EURUSD was stretched. Early Monday, it was near 76. “At best, a period of consolidation is going to be needed while we wait for the US data to deteriorate [and] while we grapple with the question of what exactly is the tariff plan at this point?” Juckes wrote.
Speaking of the tariffs, South Korea’s first 20-day exports for April fell 5.2% (exports to the US dropped more than 14%) suggesting Trump’s levies are starting to weigh on global trade.
Juckes, in the same note, said that even if some pairs (e.g., EURUSD) are due for a reversal after overshooting, “That doesn’t alter our (very strong) view that the magnitude of global over-investment in US equities and bonds will drive the dollar lower over the medium-term.”
Gold, meanwhile, pushed to new records near $3,400 Monday.
From the U.S. point of view, 2022 was the worst return in 100 years for the average retirement portfolio as both equities and bonds were down. This year is much worse. The dollar collapse is the cherry on top – if you have no dollar assets. Does no one see this?
I am a super Trump opponent but have warned since before the election that following project 2025 would destroy the U.S. and the global economy. HOW CAN WE ESCAPE from the disaster that is just begining to form. Give Trump a lobotomy? Put Navarro on trial for war crimes if the stories are true about Ron Vara, or whatever, and they should throw away the key?
HELP. Does anyone have any ideas? Plese. As I see it the country is desperate.
I finally wrote to my congressman. It may not do any good, but is better than no action.
Here is a step-by-step guide: https://www.reddit.com/r/slp/comments/1iciys7/a_handful_of_people_wanted_a_sample_letter_to/?rdt=34169
If there are better ideas out there I am listening.
Writing your reps is a good start, but calling is generally better and carries more weight. I would also suggest calling reps even if they do not represent you. For example, after Cory Booker’s 25-hour marathon on the Sentate floor, I called his office and left a message thanking the Senator and letting him know what a powerful statement he made. This weekend after I watched Nancy Mace shout down a constituent, I called her office and left a message asking her to set a better example. It probably fell on deaf ears, but at least I took action.
It is also useful to financially support causes that are under threat. I donate monthly the the ACLU, PBS, and NPR. They are small donations, but combined with thousands of other people doing the same thing, they add up.
Go protest in the street. Just like the U.S. sailing ships through the S. China Sea to excercise their freedom of navigation, you are excercising your rights to free speech while you still have them. The more often we excercise these rights, the harder they will be to take away.
Lastly, you can write op-eds in your local newspaper to try and sway people’s opinions or bring light to some of the injustices unfolding before us. No matter what you decide to do, try and find a few things you can do every week and keep up with them. Individually we’re just drops of water, but together we’re a river and we can carve a canyon if we stay united and consistent.
+1 on this, especially the call to take to the streets. Weekly protests are bound to continue and they need to get larger. They’ll be scoffed at by MAGA as just the liberal snowflakes, but if they continue to swell in size, protests can gather some momentum. Remember, it’s not Trump that will change, but the bigger the protests get the more the other politicians will get nervous and push back on him.
Agree and couldn’t help but want to share the below article:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/20/trump-protesters-czech-republic
Quote
Back in Prague, Roll – recalling the intoxication of the anti-Babiš rallies – had advice for US demonstrators: stay positive and, whatever Trump’s provocations, avoid hateful rhetoric – something he fears the US’s two-party system makes hard to avoid.
“The division in the United States is really dangerous because you see the other side as the enemy,” he said. “It’s crucial to remain non-violent and hopeful. Talking in front of lots of people, we realised you have to be careful about your language because if you are too negative or hateful, it can defeat your purpose. Remember that the other side are people. They’re your brothers and sisters.”
Unquote
One thing to do is personal.
Remember that the antidote for Greed is Generosity; for Hate is Goodwill; for Ignorance is Enlightenment. Cultivating skillful core values in your self will help with stress. Cultivating them with community, friends and those not so friendly can be infectious.
None of this is to suggest passivity or acceptance. Rather to encourage excellence in virtue, which seems to be in such short supply.