On Sunday morning, I quoted a CIO who spoke to Bloomberg about the unprecedented circumstances market participants are currently tasked with navigating.

To paraphrase, he said it’s never been the case that one man has singlehandedly wielded as much sway over the entire universe of financial assets as Donald Trump currently exerts.

That’d be perilous enough were the man in question in full possession of his faculties and not in thrall to his own delusions of autocratic grandeur. In the current circumstances, defined as they are by the fast-motion dissolution of pretty much every institution, both domestically in the US and abroad, which held the post-War order together, it’s existential.

The difference between this time and Trump’s first term is that the word “existential” isn’t hyperbole anymore. I spoke a few evenings ago with a real estate developer active in Republican fundraising at the local, state and national levels. He didn’t so much say he regretted voting and fundraising for Trump. That point, he seemed to suggest, was moot already. Rather, he was concerned about Trump’s inclination to “vanishing” American citizens, something this person hadn’t anticipated.

Why would a Trump voter and GOP fundraiser be concerned about that? Well, the same reason a mobster has more reason to be concerned about being the victim of a mob hit than a random civilian: They know his name, what he’s said, where he lives, where his family members live and so on. He’s a member of, and thereby a known quantity in, what increasingly looks like history’s most powerful organized crime outfit. Sure, you may be in good standing today, but what about that time you had too many Sambucas and make a crude remark about Johnny Salami’s wife? What if that finds its way up the organizational chart?

I’m not joking. That anecdote — about the local real estate developer and fundraiser — is 100% real. It’s that serious, only with a decidedly unserious veneer by virtue of who it is we’re talking about. This is, after all, still “covfefe” guy who was so excited to meet with British royalty in an official capacity that he couldn’t resist bragging to the world about his upcoming tea date with “The Prince of Whales.”

I don’t envy professional stewards of other people’s capital right now. Really I don’t. Each and every day, clients’ assets are subject to the vagaries of Trump’s authoritarian whims, and already that’s manifesting in some of the wildest market swings ever.

The figure above’s familiar, or at least if you’re a Bloomberg junkie it is. It’s just the intraday range for the S&P. It recently spiked to almost 11%, well wider than anything witnessed during the pandemic crash-and-rally, and on par with the most harrowing days of the GFC.

Let that sink in: US equities were, however briefly, as crazy this month as they were when the fate of the global financial system was genuinely uncertain.

I realize — and this makes me feel very old — that a lot of readers don’t remember Lehman, so allow me to emphasize: In September and October of 2008, there were very real concerns that the ATMs were going to go dark and the shelves bare. That’s the sort of end times backdrop we’re in the process of recreating based on intraday S&P price swings.

In the latest Weekly, I suggested the most dangerous aspect to this whole sordid episode in world history is the extent to which it forever dispenses with the myth that America’s immune to autocracy. Right up until April 2, markets seemed skeptical — unconvinced that this is, in fact, a turning point. “Liberation Day” brought it home, though. Pandora’s Box is open.

As the figure above shows, the explosively wide distribution of daily spot equities outcomes engendered by Trump’s tariff actions led to a quintupling of short-term trailing realized vol virtually (and almost literally) overnight.

As discussed in these pages on countless occasions over the years, that’s extremely dangerous given modern market structure where so much capital’s mechanically deployed (and un-deployed) based entirely on volatility.

Speaking of volatility: Treasurys. It’s now widely understood that the only thing capable of scaring Trump is the bond market. The acute selloff in Treasurys which transpired two weeks ago compelled the 90-day tariff “pause.” Even Trump admits as much.

The figure above gives you some historical context for the scope and rapidity of the drawdown in US government notes and bonds dated 10-years and out.

Again: There’s very little precedent, and importantly, there’s no precedent where the catalyst was concerns about a sea change in America’s system of governance.

I don’t think anyone believes this is over. Nor does anyone I know of think this is as bad as it’ll get. But it’s already worse, or nearly as bad, as it’s ever been. And you can take “it” to mean pretty much anything you want.

Good luck, folks. You’re gonna need it. So will I. So will everyone.