I suppose this goes without saying, but just in case: US mortgage rates rose dramatically over the past week.

A cornerstone of Scott Bessent’s messaging since he took the reins at Treasury was (past tense maybe) the notion that the Trump administration can bring down 10-year US yields, and that in doing so, they can deliver tangible benefits both for the government, in terms of lower borrowing costs, and for Main Street.

It worked for a while, which is to say until it didn’t. Last week, amid the fallout from Trump’s botched “Liberation Day” unveil, 10-year US yields surged more than 40bps, a disastrous outcome which I think it’s fair to suggest did significant damage to Bessent’s credibility — with markets, but also with Trump, in whose eyes it’s always someone else’s fault.

One consequence was a 20bps increase in the average 30-year fixed, which jumped to 6.81% on the MBA’s gauge.

As the figure shows, it was the biggest week-to-week increase since October.

The market could’ve done without that as the spring buying season struggles to gain momentum. Mortgage apps responded, dropping 8.5%. Both refis and purchase apps fell.

“Purchase volume remains almost 13% above last year’s level, but economic uncertainty and the volatility in rates is likely to make at least some prospective buyers more hesitant to move forward,” MBA SVP Mike Fratantoni said, noting that the ARM share, at nearly 10%, was the highest since November of 2023, when rates were near 8%.

Meanwhile, builder sentiment actually managed to beat estimates for April, but at 40, NAHB’s measure still sits well below the threshold separating net optimism from pessimism.

Note from the figure that the index has managed just two prints north of 50 since August of 2023, when the Fitch downgrade and fiscal concerns triggered a sharp, three-month repricing in the term premium which crescendoed in five-handle Treasury yields three months later.

The color accompanying the NAHB release was predictable: Nobody’s enamored with the tariffs. “Builders have expressed growing uncertainty over market conditions as tariffs have increased price volatility for materials at a time when the industry continues to grapple with labor shortages and a lack of buildable lots,” NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes, a North Carolina-based builder, said.

Robert Dietz, NAHB’s chief economist, lamented “a negative impact on home builders” from policy uncertainty, which makes it hard “for them to accurately price homes and make critical business decisions.” This month’s survey, he went on, shows that “the cost effect is already taking hold, with the majority of builders reporting cost increases.”

So, the tariffs are pushing up the costs of homebuilding (costs which’ll be borne in a lot of cases by buyers) and also financing costs for homes by undermining the bid for US Treasurys. Thats — umm — suboptimal.

Six in 10 builders in the NAHB poll said their suppliers “have already increased or announced increases of material prices due to tariffs.” The association put some numbers to it. The “typical cost effect from recent tariff actions” is nearly $11,000 per home.

Meanwhile, Redfin said that although demand’s improving at the margins, tariffs “are coming up for the first time” in buyer discussions.

“I hosted an open house over the weekend, and some of the younger buyers were concerned about how [the tariffs] are going to impact the housing market,” an agent in Detroit told Dana Anderson, for an update published last week. “They’re hearing the words ‘tariffs’ and ‘recession,’ and it’s making them nervous that if they buy now, the value of their home will decline, and they don’t know whether mortgage rates will go up or down.”

I could go on, but I think you get the point.