Germany’s going to spend some money. Not because they want to, necessarily, but because they have to.
Last week, Donald Trump de facto reneged on America’s Article 5 commitments. Make the “tough love” case (i.e., “Trump’s just trying to coax Europe out of complacency for their own good”) if you like, but in a (for now hypothetical) scenario where Vladimir Putin invades the Baltic states, America’s not coming to help.
If you don’t understand why that’s inauspicious, you’re unheeding of matters critical to global security. And if you didn’t get that from Trump and JD Vance last week, you’re oblivious.
If, on the other hand, you do understand what’s at stake and you aren’t oblivious, but you’re nevertheless reluctant to concede what’s just happened, I’d suggest you’re struggling with an all-too-familiar psychological quandary which bedevils Trump voters at fairly regular intervals. Believing what’s right in front of you means facing up to a “Wait, I didn’t sign up for this” moment, which is as difficult as admitting you were duped on any other deal.
Let me put it this way: If you knew better, then you gotta own it. A lot of Trump voters didn’t know better, and still don’t, but if you did, and you went there anyway in November, you can’t escape culpability by pretending that what’s going on isn’t actually what’s going on. In this case, what’s going on is that Trump’s long-standing NATO grievances have manifested in the beginning of the end for the alliance. America’s no longer the guarantor of Europe’s security in the event of Russian aggression.
Trump’s most ardent supporters often chide his less fanatical fans for not taking what he says literally. And what did he say literally about NATO and Russian aggression? He said this:
You didn’t pay? You’re delinquent? No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage [Russia] to do whatever the hell they want. You gotta pay.
And, so, Germany will “pay.” Which means Germany will rearm. And, with apologies to the Germans, who are today a very fine people, that’s a little scary. Just like the prospect of a non-pacifist Japan is a little scary.
On Tuesday, Friedrich Merz indicated that he and Olaf Scholz will move to relax borrowing and spending limits such that Germany can plow hundreds of billions into defense and infrastructure. Merz, who’s almost sure to succeed Scholz as chancellor after garnering the largest share of last month’s election, cited “the increasing threat situation” as well as “the most recent decisions by the American government” for what’ll be a rapid legislative push before the new parliament, in which Alice Weidel’s AfD will play spoiler, is convened.
I’m not an expert on the Germany legislative process by any stretch, but I assume Merz and Scholz will need the Greens to get this passed. Christian Lindner’s Free Democrats surely won’t support a relaxation of the debt brake, even for the purposes of insuring against a Russian invasion (recall that last month’s elections were triggered in November when Lindner refused to cooperate with Scholz around more spending).
Based on the market reaction Wednesday, the odds of Merz and Scholz ultimately succeeding in clearing the way for massive defense and infrastructure spending are quite good. Because the selloff in bunds was quite “bad.” Bad’s a bit of a misnomer in this context (unless you were leveraged long bunds, in which case yeah, it was bad), so let’s call it nothing short of historic instead.
As the figure shows, the 30bps move was the largest since “Berlin Wall” was in the news. There’s something ironic about the worst day for bunds since the dissolution of the Soviet Union occurring in tandem with what some regard as an effort on Russia’s part to partially reconstitute the USSR.
I’d say Merz didn’t suggest Trump isn’t committed to NATO except that he did. And not for the first time either. “We are counting on the United States standing by our mutual alliance commitments in the future but we also know that the funding for the defense of our country and alliance must now be expanded significantly,” he said.
There’s only one way to interpret that. To the film fans among you: “Hey, Donnie, did I say I was gonna get whacked?” “Not in so many words.”
Last week, Merz accused Trump and Vance of sending for Volodymyr Zelensky only to figuratively kill him. “In my opinion, it was not a spontaneous reaction to what Zelensky was saying, but obviously a deliberate escalation,” Merz said, following the highly unfortunate spectacle which played out in the Oval Office on February 28. “What we have just seen in Washington has a certain continuity with a number of events in the last few weeks, including the appearance of the American delegation in Munich,” he added, a reference to Vance’s bizarre behavior at the world’s foremost security conference.
Merz was pretty explicit this week too while detailing his plans to ramp defense spending. Germany, he went on, “must make very big efforts, very quickly, to strengthen the defense capability of our country and the European continent.” He invoked that famous phrase: “Whatever it takes.”
Coming full circle, Merz is wide awake to a reality that some Trump voters who’d rather not own up to the consequences of their ballot are still reluctant to concede. Late last month, following the CDU/CSU election win, Merz was even more direct. “I never thought I would have to say something like this on television, but it is clear that the Americans — at least this part of the Americans, this administration — are largely indifferent to the fate of Europe.”
Of course, some Trump voters would simply reply, “Hell yes we’re indifferent,” the implication being that nothing which goes on “over there” can possibly affect us “over here.” If that’s you, I hope you’re right. Really I do. But you know what they say about hope: It’s not a strategy.
“Any good con man will tell you that it’s easier to con someone than convince them that they had been conned.”
I have coworkers, friends and family who support trump. Each time trump says or does something I find alarming and dangerous, I ask a few of them if it changes how they feel about him. Nothing seems to matter to them. These are otherwise intelligent, rational people. The Zelensky oval office meeting was one of the most shameful moments I’ve ever seen on tv. A US president and vice president kicking the leader of a twice attacked democratic ally while he’s down, making him literally beg for help in front of the world. Trump at one point actually lamented the fact that Putin got dragged into the russia russia russia investigation, and unnecessarily suffered because of it. I asked the aforementioned friends about that moment, and none of them thought there was anything wrong with that. None of them thought anything was wrong with pardoning violent criminals for the jan 6 attack on the capitol. There’s some psychological effect that trump’s particular way of communicating has on certain people, that makes him immune their rational scrutiny.
Thank you for that. That rings true. I dont what explains that. A principle of reality will set in when things turn sour enough. Then your family and friend will tell you: i told you so.
I have been having the same experience. It would be infuriating if it wasn’t so frightening. It’s a case of speak no evil, see no evil. There is no action or statement too outrageous for them to rationalize and they are in denial about the risks Trump poses to the nation and the world. Let alone the damage that’s already been done. We’re all now only realizing what Trump’s always known: he could literally kill someone in broad daylight and it would change nothing for his supporters.
You really should watch some documentaries on people who have escaped a cult. The Jonestown survivors made it very clear that they would have done anything for that man. Most of the people who survived that event did so by pure chance.
H-Man, probably somewhat apropos for the German folktale — The Pied Piper.
The supporters think they are fighting a war. Once people get in that mindset they typically can only change by dying in battle or in old age. What we need to focus on is supporting faith leaders who tell the truth about G.O.P. not following the precepts of Jesus Christ. Faith leaders can turn some of them, hopefully enough turn back to compassionate teachings to erode the base.
I don’t think trading one cult for another is exactly a great strategy. MAGA was born inside of white evangelical churches.
The US votes with Russia, China, Belarus on UN resolutions. The administration is praised by Russian media for using Kremlin talking points when brow-beating the democratically elected leader of another country. The US cuts off military aid and intelligence feeds to a democratic ally currently at war with Russia. The US meddles in internal German politics and now Romanian politics by supporting far-right fringe candidates.
There is no 3D chess going on here. Trump and Vance are Putin’s sock puppets, plain and simple.
Yes this is true. We have not known the full effect of Russia’s pressure campaign. They are capable of stealing almost anything not nailed down. Wonder if the have their eyes on Ft. Knox.
In just a matter of months, Mr Trump has managed to change “German rearmament” from “scariest two words in European history” to “can they do it fast enough?”
“Looking for a time when German rearmament led to stability is a bit like hunting for a unicorn in a war zone”, said Grok 3. I guess we’ll see if it’s different this time.
Ignoring history, Germany’s place in the EU economically aligns with them taking the lead on rearmament. Not ignoring history is something Germany has methodically taken steps to ensure will likely not happen. Even the AfD is less right wing than MAGA is, yes they complain about immigrants, but they actually have a problem with unemployed immigrants living off of social services. Something about voluntarily letting 5M immigrants in and immediately signing them up for social services has created a backlash to a real problem that we only imagine exists here.
And, we are obviously in no place to point out the mote in Germany’s eye.
https://protectdemocracy.org/work/the-authoritarian-playbook/
This administration is literally executing this playbook every single day.