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Sorry, Ukraine. We’re Cowards Over Here Now
The saving grace for humanity may be that he's old.
I'm not talking about Donald Trump, although I could be. Rather, I'm talking about Vladimir Putin, who it's safe to say wishes he didn't waste so much time trying to feign assimilation into the world order he's now bent on disrupting and, ultimately, destroying. Maybe it's not too late for local adventurism, but compared to Putin, Adolph Hitler was a spring chicken when he set about conquering Europe.
A common misconception about Putin says h
Well put, sir.
If you noticed any typos in this on a first read, refresh the page. I think there were three in the original, and I think I fixed them all.
It’s hard to say whether this speech or his attempts to lecture the Pope on Catholic principles is more laughably absurd.
Hard for me to laugh at the religious lectures from the MAGA leaders, they are not so subtly setting up a Christian nationalism authority. That deeply troubles me.
If history is any guide this will be extremely expensive to fix. Events such as these have drained all the treasure from some of the deepest pockets we have ever known.
Hasn’t the Trump/Putin call become meaningless? How can Trump “do a deal” with Putin without Ukraine or Europe agreeing to it? Maybe the US will stop sending aid to Ukraine, but that seemed like a given back in November.
Well, in theory anyway, Trump could force a deal on them by saying “Keep fighting if you want, but if he nukes you, you’re on your own,” or, more likely, “Keep fighting if you want, but you’re going to lose eventually, and if he takes Kyiv, it’s his.” i.e., “This is your chance to keep 80% of your country, you should take it.” He could also intimate to Brussels that the US won’t honor its NATO commitments if Ukraine doesn’t stop fighting, thereby forcing Europe to cut off its own aid to Kyiv. I think something like four in 10 Ukrainians now supports ceding some (let’s call it 10%) of lost territory to Russia to stop the fighting. Bottom line: Trump can force a “deal,” and it’ll save a lot of lives in the near-term. The question is whether it ends up costing more lives in the medium- to long-term, and we shouldn’t forget that this’ll mean abandoning cities and towns where the locals are currently living under Russian occupation. Those places will be settled by Russians. It’s not as if Moscow’s going to — you know — call them conquered and then just leave them to whatever locals are left. These will be Russian localities going forward.
This is exactly right. We could not just opt to not honor NATO commitments, we can relax sanctions (posed by us) meaningfully. We can play hard ball in numerous ways with Europe, including with sanctions, if they opt to ignore whatever “deal” is coming, etc. That doesn’t mean it’s over for Ukraine as it currently is known, but there are a range of variables still at play.
I write this sitting in Krakow, and will be heading to Kyiv tomorrow. Mostly to listen to some old friends, as I often do. And keep thinking about ways to get through this to whatever outcomes are as just as possible given the circumstances. Circumstances which at least politically seem to have deteriorated this week. Or perhaps it’s just that the truth was laid bare this week, despite the several “walk backs” which seem a bit forced to me, mostly focused on a thin-skinned autocrat who still wants so bad to be seen as an equal by an aging kleptocratic gangster with a persistent fever dream of imperialism.
Putin finally on the ropes and the US newly elected fascists throw yet another gritty, hard-fighting, freedom loving ally under the bus.
Me thinks that “…kowtowing to a dictator in pursuit of peace.” might be a wee bit overgenerous when the Pumpkinführer obviously lives for quid pro quo. But maybe that’s just the unjustified bias of this grumpy old guy.
In the end it’s always about money for Trumpkin. Musk aims to be the first trillionaire and has promised his puppet to cut him in for half a trillion (of course he reversed those figures when he let Trump in on the plan). Like the old NY radio ad ‘money talks nobody walks’. I’m sure that’s on the mens’ room wall at Camp Mar-a-lago. Musk’s idea of putting the Treasury on blockchain is a keystone for his master plan. Trump and Melania can’t wait for their meme coins to be coins of the realm. Revenge is the sweetener in Trump’s diet coke.
Without significant U.S. support, Ukraine has little to no chance of regaining its lost territory. Their best hope for a secure future would be a strong treaty to protect what remains of their country, one that includes membership in NATO. I am not certain that all existing NATO countries would agree to this, as another attack against Ukraine would essentially force them all into a direct conflict with Russia. This would include the U.S. I would assume that NATO membership is a deal-breaker for Putin, and we know that Donnie is not a big fan of NATO either.
Will Trump even tacitly commit to defending Ukraine directly should Russia violate Ukrainian territory again (and could Ukraine and Europe actually trust such a pledge?) Perhaps some new sort of European-based defense pact is in order then, but with Vance and Rubio negotiating in Ukraine’s stead it is hard to see that happening. The nations of Europe would also have to be at the table. Perhaps Europe will step-up when they see what a raw deal Ukraine is getting, and realize that their future is also potentially at stake. A mutual-defense deal in exchange for the removal of economic sanctions against Russia might be workable at a later date. Otherwise, Putin gains territory, weakens Ukraine, and does not have anything like NATO to deal with.
Putin’s going to negotiate a ‘peace of the pie’ deal and Trump has done his bidding by cutting Europe out before the talks begin. If Europe wants to keep their democracy, they better forget the US and take the reins firmly in hand. Zelensky spoke of millitary force size and Ukraine + Europe still falls woefully short of Russia. And when it comes to losing soldiers Putin could care less, which seems to be in the DNA of all Russian leaders.
It’s ironic that the America First MAGA Mob (AFMM) fails to notice that US policies are now being run by two men born in South Africa and Germany (Vance’s puppet master Theil). As well as the Mag 7 mostly run by Taiwanese and Indians. Talk about a Globalist Conspiracy!
Poor Donald is now a figurehead with little power. as evidenced by his walk-backs from his tariff announcements. At least they are still letting him run the mass deportation side of things.
Two thoughts on what is happening.
Either Trump and the right-wingers are very sympathetic to Russkiy Mir, Putin, Dugin etc. We remember, Maria Butina. And here we have it, in Orban-style: they make deals with Putin, make a buck and proliferate right-wing thought.
Or it is the administration’s plan is to split Russia from China, leave Russia intact, keep it from civil war and integrate it into a some kind of framework, all of these things can be read here in Kissingers Economist interview from 2023: https://www.economist.com/kissinger-transcript or on the Economist-Podcast from Mai 2023.
(note: Kissinger also thought a Ukraine NATO membership would make the world safer)
It seems like it definitely comes at opportune time: Russia reportedly lost just over 5,000 tanks and armored vehicles during 2024 compared with 3,000 in 2023. (…) IISS assessed that Russia’s ongoing effort to expand the Russian military and create new units is exacerbating equipment shortages and noted that Russia may also be suffering from a shortage of spare parts to refurbish tanks and armored vehicles. (…) Russia may struggle to adequately equip its units with materiel in the long-term if the Russian military continues to burn through Soviet-era vehicle stocks without significantly increasing Russia’s ability to produce new tanks and armored vehicles. (ISW, https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-13-2025)
I sit in one of the dives
On Fifty-second Street
Uncertain and afraid . . .
Why does djt want to cut budget, save money from foreign allies, etc? Create a bigger pot to grift off? Dead stop yes!
Isn’t this Europe’s wake-up call? They’ve essentially outsourced their security and defense to the United States since 1945. Can they really trust that the US is going to be there if Putin decides to make the Warsaw Pact great again?
I guess I could have read the next article before commenting on this one.
Just another example of Trumps ignorance and incompetence. You didn’t even bring up the reprehensible $500 million dollar bribe that Trump asked for. Ukraine is unfortunately screwed. They will end up ceding territory, it may end the hot war. But I don’t really see any peaceful solution.