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2025 Crystal Ball
What's the consensus outlook for 2025? That's a tough question to answer. Consensus for what, exactly? Geopolitics (war)? Macro (US economic "exceptionalism")? Markets (US "TINA")? All of the above?
If we're talking US monetary policy, the consensus isn't 100bps of rate cuts anymore. Not after the December FOMC meeting, at which the Fed tipped two fewer reductions than conveyed in the September dot plot. As discussed here at some length on Christmas Day, markets are now priced for just ~37bps o
The AI images really are getting better. Those glass shards are cool (especially the varying focal distances), but the wood grain under the snow globe is outstanding. The only major tell that something’s off is to be found between the bull’s hind legs. I guess we’ve moved on from “count the fingers” to spot AI to “check the rocky mountain oysters.”
My prediction for 2025 is that I will continue to post comments here strictly for my own amusement and without any regard for value added.
The Dude abides.
I don’t know about you, but I take comfort in that. It’s good knowin’ he’s out there. The Dude. Takin’ ‘er easy for all us sinners.
I second that
Basically, all 10 of his themes are net constructive for risk assets. His crystal ball doesn’t seem to have a bearing on in it at all.