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Builders Bet On Red Tape Relief From Trump 2.0
There's a builder in The White House! There's a builder in The White House!
Homebuilders across America were still feeling a little down on their luck this month, but things'll be better soon. A lot better, according to the latest read on the NAHB's forward-looking gauge.
The index of future sales, already on an upswing, pushed to 66 in data released Tuesday, the highest since April of 2022.
Needless to say, that's in no small part attributable to the election and assumptions, misguided or
Anything from your builder whether they’re encountering shortages? I’ve stumbled across a handful of persuasive anecdotes suggesting the majors are stockpiling materials in an effort to front-run tariffs, leaving small operations unable to meet timelines.
That makes sense if you think that DJT will add to his tariffs on Canadian lumber.
Looking at the months inventory in new houses, and considering how concentrated new house building and hence excess invtry is in the S/SE, I really don’t think permits/regulations are the #1 problem for developers. #1 is invtry, #2 is rates, labor may soon be #3 and moving up.
No one thinks about cycles – or no one who writes here does – except me. Telling me that numbers are the highest since April 2022 makes me choke as that is somewhere between 90% and 110% of the Kitchin cycle – or buiness cycle as the average man calls it. I could be wrong, but it looks like it is about to fall off the cliff in a month or two (not to mention seasonality). Ignoring those suckers can be very dangerous.